Airport locations that will have sizeable numbers of international passengers passing through them are set to increase dramatically between now and 2032 – which is good news for duty free and travel retailers looking to target the most lucrative gateways of the future.

 

But it is worth noting that, by 2022, it is in mature markets where a lot of the growth will take place rather than emerging nations, with China conspicuous by its relative absence.

 

According to European aircraft manufacturer Airbus, the number of what it defines as ‘aviation mega-cities’ [those with more than 10,000 daily long-haul (≥ 2,000 nautical miles) international passengers] is set to more than double from 42 in 2012 to 89 by 2032 (see charts).

 

That will push up the number of daily long-haul passengers from today’s 0.8m to 2.2m within 20 years. Airbus also notes that while 92% of long-haul traffic currently goes to/from the 42 mega-cities today, by 2032 that will rise to 99%, indicating that there will be a concentration of aviation power – and retail focus with it – in these locations.

 

 

TRBusiness asked Airbus which will be the newly emerging mega-cities of the future to watch. By 2022, the aircraft manufacturer – based on its own research and estimates – points to 27 new locations breaking the 10,000 daily barrier. Another 20 will emerge by 2032.

 

The 27 are: Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Auckland (New Zealand), Barcelona (Spain), Brisbane (Australia), Brussels (Belgium), Guangzhou (China), Dallas (US), Denpasar Bali (Indonesia), Detroit (US), Houston (US), Jeddah (Saudi Arabia), Jakarta (Indonesia), Lima (Peru), Lisbon (Portugal), Lagos (Nigeria), Mexico City (Mexico), Milan (Italy), Manila (Philippines), Nairobi (Kenya), Perth (Australia), Philadelphia (US), Panama City (Panama), Rio De Janeiro (Brazil), Riyadh (Saudi Arabia), Santiago (Chile), Seattle (US), and Taipei (Taiwan).

 

CHINA DOESN’T MAKE THE GRADE

While there are emerging market cities among the 27, what the 2022 list shows is that a large proportion of new mega-cities will be in developed markets. For example, five cities in the US will enter the 10,000 international passengers per day category: Dallas, Detroit, Houston, Philadelphia and Seattle. Meanwhile there are a further three in Australasia (Auckland, Brisbane and Perth); and in Europe another four make the list (Barcelona, Brussels, Lisbon and Milan).

 

Interestingly, in mainland China only Guangzhou makes it to mega-city status, joining Beijing and Shanghai, while in Africa, both Lagos and Nairobi will join Johannesburg as the key international hubs on the continent.

 

[The full list of mega-cities in 2022 and 2032 can be seen in a forthcoming issue of TRBusiness magazine.]