Flight bookings to the UK were boosted significantly after the referendum vote to leave the European Union, as TRBusiness predicted the day after the vote, which took place on 23 June.   

According to new data from airline seat booking analyst, ForwardKeys, UK arrivals bookings rose by +7.1% based on millions of real-time flight transactions – and spells good news for duty free and travel retailers across UK airports.

The net increase reflects seats booked in the periods 27 May to 23 June and from 24 June to 21 July 2016, versus the same period last year.

In the month prior to the referendum, flight reservations were running at -2.8% year-on-year, but in the month after the Brexit decision, they were up +4.3% to realise a net gain of +7.1% (see chart below and click to enlarge).

A breakdown of the results by European and non-European markets shows that a large chunk of the demand has, so far, come from the latter. Net bookings from Europe were up +5.0%, while non-European arrivals were up by +8.7% and there is anecdotal evidence from luxury retailers that London downtown spending from the Chinese, in particular, has rocketed as they take advantage of the drop in the value of pound sterling.

CHINESE DEMAND GROWS

Patricia Yates, Director at VisitBritain, the government agency which promoted travel to the UK, says that Caissa Touristic, a tour operator specialising in Chinese travel to Europe has seen a +20% increase in enquiries and/or bookings for the UK since Brexit, compared to the same period last year.

At ForwardKeys, Chief Marketing Officer, Laurens Van Den Oever, says: “In the face of worldwide economic uncertainty, terrorism and air traffic disruption, the aftermath of the referendum requiring Britain to leave the Eurozone, flight arrivals have seen an uplift during the last month, driven by demand coming from the US and Asia Pacific.”

He adds: “The -10% drop in the value of sterling after the referendum sharpened interest in the UK as a holiday destination. Bookings from Hong Kong rose +30.1%, the US was up +9.2%, Canada was up +7.4% and the United Arab Emirates was up +7%. The favourable exchange rate is probably the major driver for the uptake in bookings to Britain.”

OCTOBER IS A MONTH TO WATCH

The ForwardKeys data suggest that the best improvement in the next three months will be in October (+5.3%) which may be partially explained by the time it takes to obtain a UK visa for markets such as China, and also reflecting travel periods such as China’s Golden Week, a key period for planning overseas trips.

There is potential pent-up demand: Chinese bookings were steady before and after 23 June, while there was a Hong Kong surge – the difference possibly being explained by Hong Kongers not needing a visa for the UK.