The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has announced global passenger traffic results for October showing demand (measured in revenue passenger kilometres, or RPKs) up 5.8% compared to the same period in 2015. Capacity grew 6.3%, although the load factor slipped back 0.4 percentage points to 80.1%.

 

The association said that October’s performance was a slow-down on the 7.1% year-on-year growth rate recorded in September, but still broadly in line with 10-year averages.

Domestic and international travel growth are said to have been ‘largely in balance’, while international passenger demand rose by 5.9% in October, with Asia-Pacific traffic up 7%; Europe +5.7%; Middle East +7%; North America +2.4%; Latin American airlines +7.1%; and African airlines +5.8% for the month.

 

“Passenger demand growth in October was consistent with long-term trends, but represented a deterioration compared to September,” said , IATA’s Director General and CEO, Alexandre de Juniac.

 

OIL PRODUCTION CUTS COULD RAISE COSTS…

“While the negative traffic impact from terror attacks and political instability in parts of the world has receded, the long downward trend in yield – which helped to stimulate travel – has levelled off. Furthermore, the recent OPEC agreement to restrict oil production suggests fuel prices have ended their slide.”

 

The good news for all international markets was obvious the fact that airlines in all regions recorded growth. However, as the total capacity rose at a faster rate of 6.6%, so the load factor slipped back 0.6% percentage points to 78.6%.

 

In addition to the aforementioned growth figures by region, IATA also made the following comments relating to the key performances/trends in each part of the world.

 

For example, the Asia-Pacific region’s airlines’ saw a slowing of the previous strong upward trend of recent months, although IATA notes that it is ‘too soon’ to determine whether this is an actual weakening or a mere brief pause. More positively, it says that the Asia-to-Europe market, ‘which is highly sensitive to shock events’, continues to recover.

 

EUROPEAN TRAFFIC RETURNING TO ‘NORMAL’

By contrast, international demand for European carriers is said to be ‘returning to normal’ after the disruption caused by terrorism and political instability earlier this year.

 

Meanwhile, carriers in the Middle East saw the slowest pace of growth (+7%) for the region in 18 months, although IATA says this could be due to this year’s timing of regional celebrations keeping more travellers at home during the period.

 

There was also a nominal 2.4% traffic rise for North American airlines in October which was the lowest amongst all the other regions, while Latin American carriers reported a welcome 7.1% traffic rise being driven by ‘robust demand for international traffic within the region’.

 

Lastly, African airlines’ traffic growth slowed to 5.8% year-on-year in October, from 9.1% in September, with IATA stating that ‘economic conditions in parts of the continent remain challenging’.