The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is boldly predicting that global air transport passenger numbers will double from 3.8bn this year to 7.2bn by 2035, with China, the US, India, Indonesia and Vietnam expected to be the five fastest-growing markets in terms of additional passengers during this period – and Asia the main overall growth driver.

 

IATA says its prediction is based on the 3.7% annual Compound Average Growth Rate (CAGR) contained within its ’20-Year Air Passenger Forecast’.

 

VERY BOLD PREDICTIONS

The association is also boldly predicting that the fastest growing five destinations will also account for no less than 1.8bn of the additional 3.4bn passengers expected, as its numbers show: China: 817m new passengers for a total of 1.3bn; US: 484m for a total of 1.1bn; India: 322m to a total 442m; Indonesia: 135m for a total 242m; and Vietnam: 112m for a total 150m.

 

 

Not surprisingly, the forecast confirms that Asia Pacific will continue to drive the growth by accounting for more than half this addition passenger traffic over the next two decades and IATA predicts that China will displace the US as the world’s largest aviation market (defined by traffic to, from and within the country) by around 2029.

 

DEVELOPING MARKETS WILL LEAD GROWTH

In addition, it foresees India ousting the UK out of third place by 2026 and Indonesia entering the top ten most favoured destinations at the expense of Italy. IATA adds: “Growth will also increasingly be driven within developing markets. Over the past decade the developing world’s share of total passenger traffic has risen from 24% to nearly 40%, and this trend is set to continue.”

 

IATA adds that the forecast offers three scenarios, with the main scenario envisaging a doubling of passengers with a 3.7% annual CAGR. It adds that if trade liberalization gathers pace, then demand could triple the 2015 level. However, it also warns that ‘if the current trend towards trade protectionism gathers strength’, growth could cool to 2.5% annual CAGR, so seeing passenger numbers reach 5.8bn (instead of 7.2bn) by 2035.

 

 

Commenting, Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO said: ”Economic growth is the only durable solution for the world’s current economic woes. Yet we see governments raising barriers to trade rather than making it easier.

 

GOVERNMENTS COULD SLOW PROGRESS…

“If this continues in the long-term, it will mean slower growth and the world will be poorer for it. For aviation, the protectionist scenario could see growth slowing to as low as 2.5% annually. Not only will that mean fewer new aviation jobs, it will mean that instead of 7.2bn travelers in 2035, we will have 5.8bn. The economic impact of that will be broad and hard-felt.”

 

Assuming IATA’s best growth scenario and in addition to its aforementioned five fastest growing markets, the airline body also predicts that the top ten fastest-growing markets in percentage terms will be in Africa: Sierra Leone, Guinea, Central African Republic, Benin, Mali, Rwanda, Togo, Uganda, Zambia and Madagascar. Each of these markets is expected to grow by more than 8% each year on average over the next 20 years, doubling in size each decade.

 

 

AN EXTRA 1.8BN PAX FOR ASIA PACIFIC?

The association added: “Routes to, from and within Asia-Pacific will see an extra 1.8bn annual passengers by 2035, for an overall market size of 3.1bn. Its annual average growth rate of 4.7% will be the second-highest, behind the Middle East.

 

“The North American region will grow by 2.8% annually and in 2035 will carry a total of 1.3bn passengers, an additional 536m passengers per year. Europe will have the slowest growth rate, 2.5%, but will still add an additional 570m passengers a year. The total market will be 1.5bn passengers.

 

Latin American markets will grow by 3.8%, serving a total of 658m passengers, an additional 345m passengers annually compared to today. The Middle East will grow strongly (5.0%) and will see an extra 258m passengers a year on routes to, from and within the region by 2035.

 

“The UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia will all enjoy strong growth of 6.3%, 4.7%, and 4.1% respectively. The total market size will be 414m passengers. Africa will grow by 5.1%. By 2035 it will see an extra 192m passengers a year for a total market of 303m passengers.”