Shopping KPIS in MEA. Source: m1nd-set.

Passenger traffic across the Middle East and Africa is surging past pre-pandemic levels, fuelled by Gulf carrier expansion as well as efforts to bolster and enhance connectivity. TRBusiness draws on m1nd-set data to evaluate duty free shopper behaviour and highlight opportunities for growth…

With the Middle East forecast to reach 466 million passengers (+5.9% YoY) and Africa predicted to clock up 273 million passengers in 2025 (+9.4% YoY), according to ACI World data, travel retailers in the Middle East Africa (MEA) region are benefitting from a steady stream of prospective shoppers.

Data compiled by m1nd-set and IATA NTR, shows that, of the top 10 airports in MEA in 2025, all but Ben Gurion International Airport (TLV) are experiencing a major boost in the recovery of international air traffic throughout 2025; with Dubai (DXB) set to record a 118% increase over 2019 levels ad Doha (DOH) a 149% rise – Riyadh (RUH) is out in front (in terms of recovery rate) with a 163% recovery on pre-Covid levels (2019).

This recovery is being driven by significant investment in airport infrastructure and connectivity, both in terms of terminal space and inter-organisational cooperation.

ACI World estimates that between 2025 and 2035, airports in APAC and MEA are projected to invest roughly US$240bn to stimulate tourism, business travel and better accommodate the 11 billion passengers the regions are expected to serve by 2053.

Sky-high prospects

Put simply, there is massive potential for further commercial growth across MEA.

“Travel has not only recovered but is set to soar: by the end of 2025, MEA traffic will reach 123% of 2019 levels, and by 2030 it will be more than one-and-a-half times higher (153%),” said Anna Marchesini, Head of Business Development at m1nd-set.

“Growth is fuelled by Gulf hubs like Dubai and Doha, but also by fast-emerging airports in Riyadh, Jeddah and Cairo, signalling broader regional dispersion.”

One of the key takeaways from the m1nd-set data is the strong duty free conversion rate within MEA. As a percentage of total passenger footfall, 41% of passengers are duty free visitors, with 72% of those converting into buyers, with a purchase rate of 30%, and an average spend of US$147 versus a global average of $129.

The demographics of buyers across the region are a near equal split, with women responsible for 52% of all duty free purchases.

Millennials and Gen X buyers occupy a combined 76% of total buyers, while Gen Z comprise 16%. Gen X, however, are under-represented in MEA duty free compared to the global average of 44%, while millennials and Gen Z sit 5% and 4% higher than the global average respectively.

Marchesini noted: “Millennials and Gen X dominate the shopper pool, with Gen Z already more present than globally. Further, a higher share of business travellers (28%) reinforces spend potential and appetite for premium offers.”

Self-purchasing (50%) and gifting (28%) are the top two reported purposes for duty free visits, and one of the most important sways is staff interaction, as the data shows 54% of duty free shoppers interacted with staff (against a global average of 49%) and 76% said they were influenced by staff as to their basket size and/or assortment (against a global average of 74%).

Marchesini noted: “Three in four beauty purchases are influenced at the airport, not pre-planned. Promotions, exclusives, and recruitment are strong levers: 57% buy on promotion, 65% choose exclusives, and 66% are first-time buyer.”

She continued: “Staff impact is crucial: over half interact with staff, three quarters of them are influenced by the conversation.”

The insights also highlight how shoppers are also drawn by browsing, attractive environments, and exclusivity, showing that both rational and experiential triggers play a role.

As Marchesini summarised: “With booming traffic and highly influenceable shoppers, MEA offers exceptional growth potential for brands and retailers that activate promotions, exclusivity and staff influence effectively.”

A version of this feature first appeared in the November/December 2025 issue. Click here to view.

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