International RPK growth reached 5.9% in January 2026, year-on-year, according to IATA data.

Global passenger demand was up 3.8% in January 2026 compared to the same month last year, according to the latest International Air Transport Association (IATA) data, though its Director General Willie Walsh flagged “some uncertainty into the evolution of traffic and fuel costs”.

Total demand – measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK) – was up 3.8% compared to January 2025, while total capacity – measured in available seat kilometres (ASK) – increased 3.5% year-on-year (yoy).  The load factor was 82% (+0.2 ppt compared to January 2025), marking a record high for January.

Demand for the month was ‘skewed’ by a shift in the Lunar New Year from January in 2025 to February in 2026, says IATA, meaning the spike in demand typically seen for the festivities making January 2026 demand appear ‘slightly weaker’.

“The timing of the Lunar New Year partly explains the slightly slower 3.8% expansion in January, but the fundamentals are in place for demand to continue strong growth in 2026,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

“Schedule data, for example, indicate a 5.2% increase in global seat capacity by March, which would be the fastest expansion since April 2024.

“Events over the weekend have, however, introduced some uncertainty into the evolution of traffic and fuel costs. We all hope for an early peaceful resolution to the current hostilities. In the meantime, it is critical that states respect their obligation to keep civilians, and civil aviation free from harm.”

He continued: “Average fares are expected to fall in real terms over the course of 2026, continuing a long-established trend of ever more affordable air travel.

“This is despite persistent cost pressures from rising infrastructure charges, onerous regulatory burdens, and the mounting cost of the energy transition. In the face of these cost and regulatory pressures, it is notable that 2025 saw the slowest rate of new airline start-ups since 1999. Governments who value competition should consider this a canary in the coal mine.

“To protect and enhance the consumer benefits of connectivity, these cost and regulatory issues must be addressed.”

Image Credit: IATA

International Air Transport Association (IATA) global passenger demand data for January 2026: Air passenger market in detail.

International RPK growth reached 5.9% in January yoy. All regions expanded, but yoy growth decelerated, particularly in Asia Pacific, reflecting the timing of Lunar New Year falling in February. The international load factor, at 82.5%, was a record high for the month.

The biggest rise was seen by African airlines, which saw an 11.7% yoy increase in demand, capacity up 10.1% yoy, and a load factor of 77.4% (+1.1 ppt compared to January 2025).

This was followed by Latin American airlines, which saw a 11.4% yoy increase in demand., with capacity climbing 8.9% yoy.

International Air Transport Association (IATA) global passenger demand data for January 2026: Domestic passenger markets.

Domestic RPK rose just 0.1% over January 2025, once again mostly affected by the shift of Lunar New Year.

The load factor rose slightly by 0.4 ppt to a record January high of 81.2%, as capacity fell -0.4%. China, Australia, and the United States all posted traffic declines, but Brazil was once again a strong performer, rising 10.9% year-on-year.

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