Data shows Chinese travellers are shopping & spending less. Photo: Shutterstock/dodotone.

The gap is closing on the recovery rate of Chinese international departures, but smashing the pre-pandemic level will remain elusive both this year and next, says a m1nd-set forecast. We take a look at how average spend, conversion, footfall and purchase rate in duty free among this key nationality is tracking. 

To provide DF&TR stakeholders with a deeper understanding of the challenges and opportunities around Chinese travellers in travel retail, TRBusiness has teamed up with m1nd-set on an exclusive insight series on the topic.

The first batch of data is being revealed here in our January/February issue to coincide with the Lunar New Year (the Year of the Snake on 29 January 2025).

Part two, which will feature key findings from m1nd-set’s focus groups, will be revealed in our May issue to coincide with the TFWA Asia Pacific Exhibition & Conference in Singapore (11-15 May 2025).

“Chinese travellers are hugely important to the DF&TR industry. However, data shows that, since the pandemic, Chinese people are traveling internationally less frequently. Plus, when they do travel, they tend to shop and spend less,” said Peter Mohn, Founder & CEO of m1nd-set. “Our in-depth qualitative research is being carried out especially to unpack these new dynamics.

“Through our research, we aim to highlight the most effective ways to engage with Chinese travellers and capture a valuable slice of their spend in travel retail.”

Source: m1nd-set.

Conducing qualitative focus groups with Chinese international travellers is considered, by m1nd-set, as the best way to gain a comprehensive understanding of the impact of these two key issues the industry is facing: the slower-than-expected return of Chinese international air traffic post-Covid and the lower levels of engagement in travel retail.

While passenger numbers are on the rise, it’s anticipated that it will still take some time to close the gap on 2019.

“Chinese international air traffic is not yet back to pre-Covid levels, and the recovery rate is moving at a slow pace,” confirmed Mohn.

Indeed, m1nd-set is forecasting 90 million outbound passengers in 2025 – a recovery rate of 89% compared to before the pandemic.

In 2026, this is expected to rise to 98 million, representing an 97% bounce back on the 101 million travelling internationally in 2019.

The Swiss research company is digging into the factors that are impeding the recovery, from lingering health concerns to the dip in consumer confidence and the marked shift in preferences when it comes to the types of experiences people are seeking. 

Jump-starting engagement 

In the meantime, zooming in on the lower levels of engagement gives rise to a number of interesting statistics to consider.

Source: m1nd-set.

“Among the Chinese who do travel internationally, the likelihood to browse airport duty free stores has decreased to 40% in 2024 (for the Q1-Q3 2024 period) versus 54% pre-Covid (representing 2017 to Q1 2020),” said Mohn.

“It’s a similar story regarding the propensity to convert into buyers among those who visit – at 79% in 2024 compared to 93% before the pandemic.

“This reduced engagement with the travel retail channel is also reflected by a lower average spend per Chinese duty free buyer, at $199 in 2024 versus $331 pre-Covid.”

Furthermore, the purchase rate (the share of duty free buyers out of total passengers) is also down – not only on pre-pandemic times, but also since 2023. The purchase rate stands at 31% for the Q1-Q3 2024 period, compared to 40% in 2023 and down from 50% before Covid.

Peter Mohn, Founder & CEO of m1nd-set. Photo: TRBusiness/Dreambox Creative Consultants, UAE.

For the research, m1nd-set is also questioning focus group participants on the reasons that are stopping them from buying and spending more in travel retail when travelling internationally. 

Valuable focus group

While there is expected to be some cross-over with regards to economic uncertainty impacting on consumer spending, and the increased focus on domestic tourism, the study will also help to pinpoint insights on factors such as the growing accessibility of international brands in the country and the rising popularity of online shopping.

There are a total of eight focus groups with six participants per group. The groups are split into two types. The first comprises Chinese nationals who own a passport and were used to travelling internationally pre-pandemic, but are not travelling internationally anymore. The second is made up of Chinese nationals who have travelled internationally in the past six months. 

For each of these, there are two focus groups from tier 1 and 2 cities and the same number from tier 3 and 4 cities. 

Aside from the exclusive top line insights revealed via TRBusiness, DF&TR stakeholders can purchase the full and detailed report based on the qualitative research. 

Stay tuned for the reveal of selected focus group findings in the TRBusiness May issue.

This feature first appeared in the TRBusiness January/February e-zine. Click here to read.

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