Chinese overseas visitor arrivals will overtake New Zealanders as the number one source of inbound arrivals spending the most tourism dollars by 2017-18, according to the very latest forecasts released today by Tourism Research Australia (TRA).

 

The tourism body says Australia tourism has become much more important as the country ‘transitions to a more diversified service-based economy’ and it even believes it ‘has the potential to be Australia’s fastest growing industry’.

 

Tourism Research Australia said: “The most recent satellite accounts show that tourism Gross Domestic Product grew 7.4% in 2015–16, well ahead of the rest of the economy. By the end of 2020, it is forecast that total tourism spend, excluding day trips, will reach A$131bn…” [All figures hereafter are expressed in Australian dollars-Ed].

 

BIG VISITOR SPEND RISES PROJECTED…

The tourism body also forecasts that international tourism will increase its share of visitor dollars, with the inbound visitor spend expected to grow strongly and this share to rise from 33% in 2016–17 to 44% in 2026–27 at the same time that domestic tourism is expected to register ‘moderate growth’.

 

By 2017-18, China is expected to overtake New Zealand as the largest source of both inbound arrivals and inbound spend at the same time that total international visitor numbers are forecast to rise by 13.1% – from 8.6m in 2016-17, to 9.2m in 2017-18, and once again to 9.7m in 2018-19.

 

Asia will continue to outperform other overseas markets over this period, brought about by increasing prosperity and the continuing transition of millions of people into consumer oriented, middle-class populations. In this environment, the volume of Asian visitors is expected to increase 17.4% in the two years to 2018–19, from 4.2m in 2016-17 to 4.5m in 2017–18 and 4.9m in 2018–19.

 

MAIN DYNAMICS ARE WITH CHINESE TOURISM

The main forecast rises are expected to be led by China, with a 26.4% increase from 1.3m visitors in 2016-17 to 1.6m in 2018-19. India will be second, up 21.1% from 278,000 visitors in 2016-17 to 337,000 in 2018-19, followed by Japan with a forecast rise of 15.1%, from 427,000 visitors in 2016-17 to 492,000 in 2018-19.

 

Tourism Research Australia said the bottom line is that Asia will account for over half of all visitors to Australia during 2018-19, compared with 48% in 2016-17. TRA said: “Asia will also account for 64% of all visitor growth between these two time points, with China alone making a 29% contribution, followed by Japan (5.7%) and India (5.2%)”.

 

By comparison, TRA predicts that growth prospects for Australia’s largest traditional tourism markets remain mixed.

 

It says visitor numbers from the United States (US) are expected to grow very strongly – up 14.9% from 752,000 in 2016-17 to 864,000 in 2018-19. It adds that expected improvements in the US domestic economy and the lower value of the Australian dollar relative to the US currency are expected to drive this growth.

 

 

‘CRICKET TOURISM FACTOR…’

It continues: “Visitation from the United Kingdom (UK) is a story in two parts. In 2017-18, visitor numbers are forecast to grow 7.0% to 779,000, largely driven by the Ashes Test series scheduled for the 2017-18 cricket season. In 2018-19, and in the absence of an event of this scale, UK visitation will fall 1.1% to 770,000.

 

“New Zealand (NZ) will experience below-average visitor growth relative to most other markets, increasing from 1.36m in 2016-17 to 1.45m in 2018-19 – growth of 6.7% over the two years. Consequently, China is expected to overtake New Zealand as the main source of visitors to Australia during 2017-18.

 

“Over the longer term, Australia will continue to have a high proportion of its visitors from the top five inbound markets – China, New Zealand, the US, the UK and Singapore. Collectively, these five countries are forecast to provide almost two-thirds (62%) of the additional 6.5m arrivals expected in 2026-27.

 

 

AND THE FIVE LARGEST INBOUND MARKETS WILL BE….

“Around 2.6m, or a 40% share of these additional arrivals, will be from China. This will see an increase in the importance of Chinese tourism, as their share of arrivals grows from 14.6% in 2016-17 to 16.3% in 2018-19 and to 25.7% in 2026-27. The growing significance of China will see the relative importance of other markets decline over this period.”

 

The tourism body adds that by 2026-27, the five largest inbound markets in terms of visitor spend will be China, the US, the UK, NZ and India, which will collectively account for more than 58% of inbound visitor spending.