The growth in outbound Chinese tourism is set to continue, says ForwardKeys.

The boom in outbound Chinese travel is set to continue while geopolitics will heavily influence where the Chinese visit in future – according to ForwardKeys.

Chinese tourism has grown immensely over the last few years, and there are no signs of that trend slowing, confirms the flight analyst ForwardKeys. Statistics from the Chinese National Tourism Administration reveal that outbound travel has grown +270% since 2008 and it is forecast to reach 200m departures by 2020.

Commenting on the boom, ForwardKeys’ Chief Marketing Officer Laurens van den Oever, states: “The Chinese dragon is breathing more hotly than ever. Bookings for outbound travel during the Chinese New Year in February 2018 are currently +40% ahead of where they were at the same time last year.”

POPULAR DESTINATIONS

According to ForwardKeys, destinations that will see the most positive growth from increased Chinese travel include: Thailand (+47%), Vietnam (+40%), France (+31%), Singapore (+28%), Japan (+27%) and Canada (+23%).

Although there are no signs of Chinese tourism slowing, Chinese tourists are ‘hyper sensitive’ to bad news, says Laurens van den Oever. “If a destination’s image becomes tarnished, they are swift to go elsewhere.”

Chinese tourism is strongly influenced by geopolitical events, says the company: “The stationing of the THAAD missile defence system in South Korea so displeased Beijing that Chinese tourists were encouraged to boycott South Korea, and in the year to 1 April 2017, visitor arrivals fell by -67%.” [This situation looks like it may be easing now-Ed].

This resulted in a boom in visitations to other ‘Asean’ destinations – such as Vietnam (+50%) Malaysia (+43%), Thailand (+11%) and Singapore (+6%), all noting an increase in Chinese tourists, says ForwardKeys.

GEOPOLITICAL INFLUENCE ON CHINESE TRAVEL

“The terrorist attack in France in November 2015 so spooked the Chinese that in the three following weeks after the incident, bookings plunged -72%,” it adds. Russia and Vietnam were the major beneficiaries of that tourism displacement, with bookings increasing +398% and +58%, respectively.

According to ForwardKeys, Chinese enthusiasm for the USA has fallen noticeably too in recent months, with visitor arrivals -10% down. However, its neighbouring countries Canada and Mexico have benefitted from this substantially, with arrivals up +54% and +29%, respectively.

VISA RULES RELAXED THANKS TO RISING CHINESE EXPENDITURE

Expenditure by Chinese tourists has grown a whopping +730% since 2008 too, says ForwardKeys. Management consultancy McKinsey estimates that Chinese spend on luxury goods has been growing at +9% per annum, compared to the rest of the world, which is approximately +3%.

The strong growth in Chinese tourist expenditure has not been overlooked by destinations keen to attract the yuan. Since 2014, over a dozen countries have changed their visa rules to encourage Chinese tourists to visit, and the impact has been dramatic, confirms ForwardKeys.

In the six months following the relaxation of visa requirements, arrivals in Morocco increased +378%, it adds. Spectacular increases in Chinese tourists were also noted in Moldova (+253%), Tunisia (+240%), Serbia (+180%), Israel (+57%), Peru (+56%) and Chile (+49%).