Stephen Hillam, MD, Pi Insight, presents the ETRC Business Performance Index for Q3 2025 at the 2026 ETRC Business Forum in Amsterdam.

Duty-free industry in Europe is experiencing a ‘new dawn’, with the highest level of year to date (YTD) value sales ever seen in the region, according to the ETRC Business Performance Index for Q3 2025.

The European airport duty-free sector has continued to progress on a positive trajectory during the first three quarters of 2025, with total value sales of €7.63 billion, the equivalent to growth of 5.8% YTD 2024, according to the study, which was presented by Stephen Hillam, Managing Director, Pi Insight, at the ETRC Business Forum in Amsterdam last week (22 January).

Furthermore, unit sales were up +4.9% while passenger (pax) numbers rose by +5.4% over the period.

Unit sales showed progression of 4.9% on YTD 2024 and pax showed growth of 5.4%. Additionally, average spend per passenger performed slightly above 2024 levels (+0.4% YoY).

Plus, there was positive growth across all major categories, with the exception of a marginal decline in spirits.

Hillam noted, however, that while rising passenger numbers and an evolving category mix are having a positive impact, external pressures remain, from the cost of living to the shifting preferences of younger generations.

Referencing the headline €7.63 billion value sales figure identified by the latest Index, Hillam said: “From this very initial and headline sales performance perspective, it’s a very positive start. We have an industry that has reached that point of full recovery from the pandemic back in 2024 and is now progressed through 2025 showing the strong levels of growth continuing to be the case.

“However, what’s really positive about this is the growth we’ve been seeing through 2025 – that 5.8% – is now back in line with where we’d expect it to be within the context of a stable European marketplace.”

In turn, this provides a good level of confidence in the short- to medium-term on where the industry is headed.

“In terms of the full year 2025, when we look at this level of performance we currently have, and also look at Q4, which generally contributes around 25% of total annual sales, our industry is currently very much on track to reach total annual sales for 2025 of €10.15 billion – effectively the highest level of value sales we’ve ever seen in Europe, but also the first time that our industry has approached that €10bn mark here in Europe.”

Hillam warned an air of caution however, due to background dynamics that continue to fluctuate and so could have an impact on performance moving forward. For instance, the realignment of passenger levels and value sales following the post-Covid adjustment period.

The ETRC Business Performance Index for Q3 2025 shows YTD pax traffic as 735.4 million – up 5.4% vs. YTD 2024 – and €7.63bn in value sales – up 5.8% vs. YTD 2024.

This growth in pax traffic within the region is being driven by East European locations. In contrast, North and Western locations, even though they continue to be in growth, are lagging behind.

“On the face of it, this doesn’t look like such a factor, but one thing we do need to remember is that one of the major precursors to shopper behaviour is that of nationally and if we are therefore seeing certain locations increasing at a more robust rate than other locations, we could consequently therefore be also seeing certain nationalities become more prominent within that mix at an overall European level.

“In turn, this can impact factors such as that traveller mix’s propensity to shop and spend, as well as factor such as interest in certain categories. All of this, in turn, can then impact that all-important spend per pax (SPP).”

Hillam went on to detail the relationship between value sales and unit sales, with a “significant level of realignment returning” through 2025.

“We could potentially take from this that our industry is out of the other side of that significant level of inflation and price rises that we were previously seeing. However, this does also act as somewhat of a ‘watch-out’ here, as whilst our industry is certainly resilient, it’s not immune to some of those external pressures. And if inflation were to increase again, which no doubt it will do at some point, it will no doubt also have an impact on that value sales and unit sales relationship – and we will probably see some of that alignment being undone to some extent.”

During the presentation, Hillam also gave delegates an update on how category performances have tracked over time, from Q1 2027 to Q3 2025. Notably, as we’ve moved though 2024 and 2025, it has become more evident that average category selling prices are increasingly growing further apart, as opposed to the trend lines being close together.

Ultimately, the Index shows that each individual category has showed positive year-on-year growth versus YTD 2024, although the spirits sub-category experienced a slight decline in both volume and value sales, with value falling by -0.4%.

As a welcome addition to the session, Pi Insight also presented the new Nordic & Baltic Ferry Index, which details full-year performance from 2019 to 2024, with value sales for the sector in 2024 at €686.4 million – representing -5.2% vs. 2023 (alongside pax being -3%) and -24.7% vs. 2019 (alongside pax being -22%).

The full year 2025 edition of the Nordic & Baltic Ferry Index is set to be published in the coming months (available to ETCR members) and there is the intention to bring unit sales or volume sales into the report in the future.

Channel experts brought their perspective on performance insights to the data-led session.

A subsequent discussion took a deep-dive into four key travel retail sales channels and their characteristics and opportunities for growth, with a panel of industry experts comprising Philipp Ahrens, Senior Vice President, Center Management, Vienna Airport (VIE); Fi Logan-Wyeth, Chief Commercial Officer, Retail inMotion; and Piret Mürk- Dubout, Management Board Member, Tallink, and Managing Director, Tallink Silja.

In a summary discussion that circled back to the findings of the ETRC Business Performance Index for Q3 2025, the speakers aired their thoughts on the elements that most hit home for their respective businesses and sales channels.

“The dynamics of our economies, and also what happens in politics around the world, has been a hindrance – at least that’s what we saw in the sales numbers last year at our airport,” commented Ahrens. “Yet surprisingly, as of October [2025], there seems to be a switch and the cycle of sales went up.”

Indeed, as he revealed “sales numbers are higher than passenger growth” at VIE.

“There seems to be a certain dynamic of our travelling guests that they are reluctant to spend money when there are crises in the world,” he added. “But it also seems to be the time for rewarding again and having some fun again, and this is our chance, and it will be really interesting to see how this new year will develop.”

Logan-Wyeth brought the onboard retailing view, adding: “Certainly, for us, the opportunity is participation from a boutique perspective. From an F&B perspective, we are seeing spend per pax increase and we’re seeing engagement and participation doing really well too – particularly with the LCCs.

“So, I think for us it’s about how do we use data and some of those consumer trends and real customer understanding to drive boutique from an onboard perspective and really try to start to re-engage our customers. And equally [it’s about] the way we communicate to them. How we choose the right products, communicate in the right way, try and address customer need-states in the right way and shape-shift some of that more traditional retailing that we had onboard into something more innovative and customer-led. That’s how we will start to see spend per pax increasing and bring back some of that relevance onboard.”

Finally, for Mürk-Dubout, tailoring the offering to the specifics of the channel is key: “What we are increasingly looking at it is the assortment and also the presence, so besides the physical presence there needs to be much more digital presence.

“I think the key word is partnership, that we understand how to promote this brand, this product, seasonality, how to cooperate – and how to make the play in the best way together.”

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