Breakdown of European tourism demand by region. 

International tourist arrivals to Europe rose by +5.6% in the first two months of 2026 (year-on-year) according to a new report by the European Travel Commission (ETC). However, the organisation warned that ongoing conflicts and climate-related events “may dampen travel confidence and pose risks to the tourism outlook in 2026”.

Northern and alpine destinations led the growth, with strong performances in Ireland (+30%); Finland (+12%); Italy (+14%) – helped by the Milano Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics; and Austria (+7%). Though disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict have been reshaping global travel flows, at this stage, Europe remains relatively insulated.

This view was echoed on Thursday when Avolta presented its Q1 results. CEO Xavier Rossinyol said that people were still booking their summer vacations to the Mediterranean, although the Western Med looks to be more popular than the Eastern Med at the moment.

The ETC warned: “Rising fuel and operating costs tied to the US/Israel–Iran conflict are being passed on to consumers through higher airfares and travel costs. IATA has warned that jet fuel shortages could lead to flight cancellations in Europe by the end of May.”

Lufthansa has announced plans to cut 20,000 flights between May and October 2026, and KLM has cancelled 160 flights. Despite this, the ETC says that, at this stage, Europe is expected to face a limited direct impact, “supported by a strong intra-regional demand base”.

Strongest and weakest tourism demand by region.

Impact of the Middle East conflict

The US-Iran stand-off is expected to affect European tourism primarily through higher travel costs, reduced connectivity via key transit hubs, and weaker long-haul demand. Tourism Economics – which offered a grave scenario for passenger traffic into the Middle East across the full year – suggests that disruptions limited to a two-month conflict could place around 4% of Europe’s international overnight stays at risk in 2026, equivalent to approximately 103 million nights, said the ETC. This timeframe has been exceeded, so the impact could be more pronounced, although uncertainty remains regarding its overall magnitude.

While external factors such as the price of jet fuel create unpredictability, Europe’s tourism sector is supported by strong internal travel demand. Around 80% of inbound travel to European destinations originates within the region, helping limit exposure to external shocks.

In periods of geopolitical uncertainty, travellers tend to favour destinations that are perceived as safer and closer to home. This shift is expected to help European travel in 2026. Moreover, the ETC says that past periods of instability in the Middle East have resulted in gains for European destinations, particularly those in the Mediterranean.

Commenting on the findings, ETC President Miguel Sanz said: “While the conflict in the Middle East is putting pressure on costs and connectivity, Europe is supported by intra-regional demand and its reputation as a safe destination. Maintaining competitiveness will require a continued focus on ensuring stable connectivity and value for money in the months ahead.”

To read the full ETC report, click here.

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