According to Air4casts – JRA GmbH, international air passenger demand looks set to hold its own at 5.1% for 2007, but it warns that it may dip in the New Year.

The well respected organisation says: ‘The probable dip will impact the forecasts for the first Quarter of next year. The present outlook envisages a strong start to the year with year-on-year growth rates starting at over the six percentage point mark and peaking in April at almost 8%.
‘But the trend line is still sloping downwards, beginning its descent in May and with a kick-up in September, it will produce lower values at the start of 2007, unless 2006 can close on a high.
‘The strengths of the international business are in Asia/Pacific and in Europe but demand in the USA is less buoyant than it was; the dollar may help but the unnecessary miseries imposed at immigration will not; Asia/Pacific now looks as if growth may be set to move ahead more positively; Europe is steady at around the 5% point mark and will be supported by vigorous airline marketing after the Christmas spurt.’
Air4casts' total passenger summary predicts a 4% growth forecast for 2007, which is based on October actuals for the world?s largest 100 airports and earlier data for the rest.
Its domestic passenger summary says that the US will drive the 2007 forecast improvement to 3.5%. In the Asia Pacific region, it adds that 2007 should produce growth of 6.9% in total passenger numbers. The forecast for domestic passengers is especially attractive where year-on-year the domestic 2007 increase will be 7.4%.
At the same time, European international passenger numbers are expected to set to rise by 5.3% next year, but the higher growth rates next year follow no set pattern across Europe?s member states.
Meanwhile, the USA and domestic passenger forecast is for a nominal 1.5% growth and Air4casts notes that a feature of the US business in 2006 has, ‘without a doubt’, been the decline in domestic passenger numbers ‘as airlines have attacked unprofitable route capacity’.
Better growth is expected in Africa and the Middle East with Africa's passenger numbers set to rise by 7% respectively in the coming year and the Middle Eastexpected to increase by 7% in the first half of the year. But Air4casts predicts that the outlook for the Middle East in the rest of the year is less buoyant, reasoning that the growth trend has faltered since August.
Last, but not least, it predicts that passenger growth in Latin America in 2007 will be around 2.7% for the year, with the falling trend in Latin American passenger numbers largely fuelled by developments in the domestic market.
More detailed analysis of these projections can be obtained from: Air4casts – JRA GmbH; Rue du Rhone 14, 1204 Geneva, Switzerland. Tel: +41 228 191 818; Fax: +41 228 199 484. email: [email protected]. Website: www.air4casts.aero.