Travel retail management and marketing consultancy air4casts says its latest updated quarter four international passenger forecasts are indicating a +6.4% rise – which it also expects to contribute to a total passenger forecast increase of +5%.

In terms of forecasts by region, the respected analysts expect the highest growth of 8.4% to materialise in the Asia Pacific region, followed by Latin America (+7.7%), the Middle East (6.3%), Europe (5.6%), Africa (4.8%) and North America (4.4%).

This picture of potential growth is not matched by air4casts’ last quarter outlook for domestic air traffic however, with Asia Pacific still showing strong growth at 7.7%, followed by slower expected growth predictions in the Middle East (4.6%), Latin America (2.4%),Europe (2.1%), North America (1.1%), including Africa coming in at zero. Global domestic traffic growth is also predicted at 4%.

AIR4CASTS EXPECTS LOWER GROWTH IN Q4

According to the air4cast’s analysts ‘the shift from quarter three to quarter three is informative’. Here it points to lower rates of growth for both international and domestic air passenger numbers, with ‘the highly seasonal European market’ said to be the prime cause, even though international passengers are still expected growing by more than 5%.

Click on tables to enlarge.

By contrast, air4casts adds that Asia/Pacific is ‘rock solid’ on the quarter-to-quarter basis, while ‘North America somewhat follows the European model, with the slow-down developing in the month of September’.

Moving on to air4casts’ September predictions, the company says both Russia and Mexico are expected to head up ‘the growth league tables’ for international passengers.

The analysts said: “Russia will generate almost five million departing and arriving international passengers, which is almost 12% up on 2016. Russian domestics are also growing strongly.

“Turkey, a bigger market, is still on the mend and the two data sets are not unconnected, but the 5.6% shift is less than the summer experience.

Chinese domestics will outpace Chinese internationals, but only by a fraction of a percentage point.”

PRESENT INTERNATIONAL GROWTH ‘OUT OF KEEPING…?’

The company says it is also an interesting exercise to compare this month’s (August 2017) forecast with ‘same basket of 1,525 airports six months ago, as its table reproduced below shows.

While the global outlook looks ‘slightly’ better, air4casts also warns that there are downsides. On the plus side it says that ‘the gainers’ are expected to include Europe with an extra percentage point and possibly also Asia Pacific, while Africa is predicted to show passenger flows of 114m in the year.

But air4casts also warns of downsides, as it cautions that the present levels of international passenger growth ‘still look out of keeping with recent experience’. In this respect, it says that while the UK is the biggest single market, there are still ‘medium-term doubts’.

Last, but not least, the analyst warns: “In Asia Pacific there are questions about the solidity of future Chinese growth which have been further clouded by the South Korea question…” and air4casts adds that this is ‘just too early to call.’

[air4casts can be contacted on its website: www.air4casts.com or at its London office on tel: 44 203 086 9315, or through the Hong Kong bureau: 852 3756 3481].