In the second edition of the Global Recovery Update series – and first of the New Year – ForwardKeys provides a snapshot of flight bookings and seat capacity status in domestic China ahead of the holiday season.

Intelligence from the travel analytics company reveals that while China’s domestic travel volumes are rising, there remains an air of uncertainty. Words: ForwardKeys.

TRBusiness shared insight from ForwardKeys in the first Global Recovery Update in September. This can be read here.

With nowhere to go outside of the border, the denizens of China have taken up government initiatives and cheap air offers to explore the country’s terrain. The increase is in line with the Chinese government’s new ‘dual circulation’ strategy to stimulate domestic consumption amid global economic weakness and trade uncertainty.

Domestic travel fully recovered by mid-September and even surpassed 2019 levels during the last National Day Golden Week in October. The Chinese New Year holiday, which falls on 11 to 17 February in 2021, is set to see another peak in Chinese domestic travel.

However, due to the recent resurgence of Covid-19 in some areas in China, the outlook is deteriorating. The number of tickets issued to travel within China for the Chinese New Year monitored period (from 4 to 24 February 2021) is 31% of last year’s ticketing volumes by 6 January 2021 (compared to around 41% in December 2019).

Local governments are strongly suggesting people not to travel outside their residential provinces, as a precaution against the risk of spreading Covid-19. However, it is still one month away; the overall situation could still change. Last-minute bookings have been one of the key features since the pandemic started, with most tickets issued up to four days before travelling. The most important thing is to keep the spread of the virus under control nationwide.

On the other hand, international passenger flights do not show signs of a recovery any time soon. Although Chinese travellers have been allowed to enter several countries (such as the UAE) and some others such as South Korea and Thailand have established travel corridors with China for ‘essential travel’, travel restrictions and quarantine requirements continue to be in place for the vast majority.

This represents a big handicap for international travel. The plans could be adjusted further at any time as travel restrictions continually take shape and develop.

MACAU TRAVEL CONTINUES AFTER GOLDEN WEEK

Outside Mainland China, travel to Macau has been benefiting from the lift of travel restrictions for general travel since 23 September. Bookings from China to Macau started to pick up just in time for the Mid-Autumn Festival and China National Day holidays.

The celebrations have since passed, but the travel demand to Macau seems to persist. Bookings showed a stable recovery in December 2020, albeit in much lower volumes than last year (around 30% of 2019 numbers). The average number of days between booking and travel date is around two-and-a-half weeks.

Consumption vouchers have been distributed via social media platform WeChat and a ‘buy one get one free’ deal is being offered by Air Macau to attract more Mainland China tourists.

HAINAN: POPULARITY SURGE

Hainan was definitely a rising star in 2020 as a destination for Chinese travellers. Air arrivals to Hainan during the three-day New Year holiday grew the fastest, recording 3.3% growth year-on-year.

According to Haikou Customs, duty free sales in China’s island province reached RMB 540 million yuan (about $83.6 million) in the New Year holiday (1-3 January).

Adding to the previous four offshore duty-free shops, three new shops opened on 30 December in Sanya. Haikou will open another three offshore duty free shops. One at Haikou Meilan International Airport will open for business after Terminal 2 begins operation, while the other two are scheduled to open ahead of the upcoming Chinese New Year.

Marina Giuliano, Director of Travel Retail at ForwardKeys said: “The pace of the recovery of domestic travel in China has been impressive, clearly demonstrating that there is a market that wants to travel and spend, even if that means keeping the duty-free shopping experience closer to home, in China.”

To watch a video interview with Marina Giuliano, click here and stay close to TRBusiness for further Global Recovery Updates, courtesy of ForwardKeys.

Main image Source: China Southern.