Boeing (above) and Airbus will be major beneficiaries of this expected growth.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is boldly predicting that passenger air travel numbers will hit 7.8bn passengers in 2036, which would effectively near double the present 4bn total that is expected to be recorded this year.

IATA says it bases this prediction on the 3.6% average compound annual growth rate in its latest updated 20-Year Air Passenger Forecast.

TIME TO PREPARE FOR A DOUBLING OF PAX

“All indicators lead to growing demand for global connectivity. The world needs to prepare for a doubling of passengers in the next 20 years. It’s fantastic news for innovation and prosperity, which is driven by air links.

“It is also a huge challenge for governments and industry to ensure we can successfully meet this essential demand,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

Not surprisingly IATA points to the Asia Pacific region as the biggest demand driver, with the region expected to be the source of more than half all new passengers over the next two decades.

IATA says: “The point at which China will displace the United States as the world’s largest aviation market – defined as traffic to, from and within the country – has moved two years closer since last year’s forecast.

The time to begin preparing for this huge new challenge is now, according to Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

CHINA TO SURPASS THE US IN 2022

“We now anticipate this will occur around 2022, through a combination of slightly faster Chinese growth and slightly reduced growth in the US. The UK will fall to fifth place, surpassed by India in 2025, and Indonesia in 2030.

“Thailand and Turkey will enter the top ten largest markets, while France and Italy will fall in the rankings to 11th and 12th respectively.”

Turning to the big domestic markets, IATA says it expects a combination of ‘risks, opportunities and sustainability’, with the maximum potential benefits of aviation growth dependent on the current levels of trade liberalization and visa facilitation being maintained.

GROWTH POTENTIAL DEPENDS ON PLANNING TODAY

The organisation says: “If trade protectionism and travel restrictions are put in place, the benefits of air connectivity will decline as growth could slow to 2.7%, meaning 1.1bn fewer passenger journeys annually in 2036. Conversely, if moves towards liberalization increase, annual growth could be more than two percentage points faster, leading to a tripling in passengers over the next 20 years.”

The air transport association adds that planning for growth will require partnerships to be strengthened between the aviation industry, communities and governments to both expand and modernize infrastructure.

The transport industry will also be looking to Airbus (above) and Boeing to develop ongoing reduced emissions technology and quieter aircraft as the skies and airports become so much busier in future.

It says runways, terminals, and ground access to airports will come under increasing strain. Innovative solutions to these challenges, as well as to the baggage and security processes, cargo handling, and other activities, will also be needed. And air traffic management needs urgent reform to cut delays, costs and emissions.

“Increasing demand will bring a significant infrastructure challenge. The solution does not lie in more complex processes or building bigger and bigger airports, but in harnessing the power of new technology to move activity off-airport, streamline processes and improve efficiency.

“Through partnerships within the industry and beyond, we are confident that sustainable solutions for continued growth can be found,” said de Juniac.

IATA is predicting that China could be handling nearly 1bn ‘new’ additional air passengers by 2036.

HUGE POTENTIAL – MASSIVE CHALLENGES

IATA adds that the five fastest-growing markets in terms of annual additional passengers in 2036 compared to 2016 are expected to headed by China with 921m new passengers for a total of 1.5bn.

This market will be followed) by the US with 401m new passengers for a total of 1.1bn; India with 337m new passengers for a total of 478m; Indonesia with 235m new passengers for a total of 355m; and Turkey with 119m new passengers for a total of 196m).

The association also adds that many of these fastest-growing markets are achieving a compound growth rate of more than 7.2% per year, meaning their market will double in size each decade. Most of these markets are in Africa, including: Sierra Leone, Benin, Mali, Rwanda, Togo, Uganda, Zambia, Senegal, Ethiopia, Ivory Coast, Tanzania, Malawi, Chad, Gambia and Mozambique.

In terms of regional growth, IATA adds that routes to, from and within the Asia-Pacific region will see an extra 2.1bn annual passengers by 2036, for an overall market size of 3.5bn. Its annual average growth rate of 4.6% is also expected to be the third-highest, behind Africa and the Middle East.

While IATA admits that its vision of the future is optimistic, it is also realistic, unlike this artist’s scenario at Helsinki Airport, where the airport has fortunately not lost its sense of humour.

THE AMERICAS AND MIDDLE EAST

By contrast, the North American region will grow by 2.3% annually and in 2036 will carry a total of 1.2bn passengers, an additional 452m passengers a year, while Europe will grow by 2.3%, adding an additional 550m passengers a year for a total market of 1.5bn passengers.

Still in The Americas, Latin markets are predicted to grow by 4.2%, serving a total of 757m passengers, an additional 421m and the Middle East is expected to how strong growth of 5% to deliver an extra 322m passengers a year on routes to, from and within the region by 2036 when the total market size is estimated at 517m passengers.

Lastly, IATA expects Africa to grow by 5.9% to see an extra 274m passengers a year by 2036, for a total market of 400m passengers.