IWSR: whisky, tequila and gin will drive growth to 2021

By Doug Newhouse |

IWSR REPORTS topThe International Wine & Spirit Record (IWSR) drinks publication says it latest IWSR Forecast 2017-2021 suggests that global volumes of whisky, gin and tequila will make gains of 55.2m, 7.1m and 5.8m nine-litre cases respectively over the next five years – following ‘rapid growth’ in 2016.

 

The respected international drinks specialist adds that these categories, along with Baijiu (+48.2m cases between 2016 and 2021) are also expected to account for the lion’s share of overall global spirits category growth, which is forecast to reach 3.19bn cases by 2021.

 

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The drinks analysts also report that local whisky consumption continues to perform well in India while Scotch in India is also expected to continue to be one of the largest growth segments. IWSR says that globally, Scotch is forecast to contribute 10.5m cases to whisky growth over the next five years and US whiskies a further 8.9m

 

IWSR Data 1

IWSR produces more detailed data on the international branded wines and spirits domestic and duty free markets than any other organisation today.

It adds that other whiskies – mainly of Indian origin – are expected to be the largest contributor, growing by 28.2m cases. Interestingly, the US market is said to be the second-largest growth market for whisky behind India, where the strongest forecast gains are expected for US and Irish whiskey.

 

Tequila is also expected to make its largest gains on the US market, with additional growth forecast in its Mexican domestic market.

 

In a dramatic prediction and despite being a top growth market for many categories, IWSR says that the total US alcohol market is forecast to decline by 37m cases over the next five years.

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At the same time, the analyst says that on balance the forecast growth in wine, whisky and tequila is not enough to offset the declines in beer, cider and mixed drinks.

 

IWSR Core and Insight reports

The company also produces Insight reports and several other products.

Meanwhile, it says that the original UK home domestic market for gin has led the way for category’s revival and IWSR says that despite there being a huge range of brands available – which is likely to increase to over 700 – there is still ’plenty of room’ for consumers to experiment.

 

As a result, the UK gin market is forecast to gain an additional 1.4m cases by 2021. Similar growth is also expected in Spain and the US.

 

At the same time, Baijiu is also forecast to see the largest growth all of spirits categories over the next five years, benefiting from a growing economy in China and increased demand for business banquets.

 

BEER AND WINE WILL BE THE BIG WINNERS

In addition, beer and wine (including still, sparkling, fortified and other wine, plus light aperitifs) are forecast to gain the largest volumes in the overall alcohol market over the next five years, adding 139m and 76.5m cases respectively. By contrast, The IWSR forecasts the strongest growth for beer in Mexico, India and Vietnam.

 

China and the US will see the largest growth in wine consumption over the next five years, with both local and imported wines winning over consumers.

 

The IWSR maintains that it is widely regarded as the most authoritative data source on the beverage alcohol market today. It claims that its ‘unique approach to forecasting’ has proven to be reliable. Comparing last year’s forecast for 2016 with actual 2016 data, the IWSR’s forecast at a global level differed by just 0.5% for wine and by just 0.3% for all spirits.

 

 

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