Demand for private, customised small group tours has risen.

This year’s Chinese New Year, commonly known as the Spring Festival (春节, Chūnjié) vacation will be the longest ever at nine days (15-23 February). It has stimulated average trip lengths and opened up extra retail opportunities in certain – but not all – destination markets. This is despite the spending trend across Chinese travellers remaining suppressed.

According to Flight Master: outbound flight bookings from China were up by 63% year-on-year as of 12 January, while Utour said that long-haul outbound bookings were up by 60% year-on-year and short-haul outbound bookings were up by 160%, also by mid-January.

Based on forward bookings from five leading Chinese travel sites, duty-free retailers in Thailand, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia, in that order, will have the most to gain due to the higher numbers going to these countries over CNY.

CNY boosts outbound recovery

Sienna Parulis-Cook, Director of Marketing & Communications at Dragon Trail International, a marketing solutions company, said that the absence of Japan in the top five has been influenced by a “diplomatic incident”, a reference to comments made in November 2025 by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi regarding Taiwan. The fall-off in demand for Japan will be offset elsewhere.

International outbound demand to the US/North America remains heavily down.

Parulis-Cook cited other Flight Master data suggesting that during the 2026 CNY travel rush period (2 February – 13 March), the number of international flights to and from China is expected to recover to 90% of 2019 levels, about the same as last year. Only four out of nine regions will recover to above 2019 levels: Central Asia (+234%), West Asia (+61%), Africa (+54%) and Europe (+26%).

The US is a long-term weak link

North America, essentially the US, is the weakest region at -63%, not helped by Trump’s tariff-driven trade policy, which has spiked Oxford Economics’ US Trade Policy Uncertainty Index. The average from 1985 to 2010 was 100, but by the end of 2025, it had reached 8,000.

Based on a travel trade survey, among the core trends that will define this year’s CNY are:

– a rise in family vacations to 55%, with luxury/HNWIs trailing at 22%

– major growth in travel to new visa-free markets like Russia, Türkiye, and the Philippines

– demand for private, customised small group tours at 55%, ahead of group tours at 27%

Looking further ahead, Tourism Economics, a division of Oxford Economics, said that all regions’ reliance on China has increased over time and that by 2027, China’s outbound visits would recover to 2019 levels. This has been pushed back from 2026, due to disappointing near-term forecasts, particularly in the Chinese economy, according to Michael Shoory, Head of APAC Tourism Analysis at Tourism Economics.

However, despite the setback, Shoory said the long-term outlook remains solid and that China will outpace other outbound markets from 2029 onwards. And by 2034, Tourism Economics forecasts that China will account for 7.9% of all outbound visits to top global destinations, equalling the US as the top market due to a forecast share decline from the US starting this year.

Despite the uneven short-term picture, the extended CNY holiday underscores a deeper structural benefit: China’s outbound travel market remains both resilient and strategic. While geopolitical tensions, economic softness, and shifting consumer preferences will continue to reshape destination winners and losers, the long-term trajectory is firmly upward.

For travel retailers, tourism boards, and brands across Asia and beyond, the task now is to adapt to a more selective, value-conscious Chinese traveller – one whose influence will only grow as outbound volumes return to pre-pandemic levels and eventually surpass them in the decade ahead.

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