Chinese outbound passenger numbers are projected to hit 101 million.

According to new research by m1nd-set, a full recovery in Chinese outbound travel as of 2026 is set to mark a transformative turning point for the global travel retail industry.

The rebound is expected to usher in a new phase of growth as Chinese travellers become increasingly pragmatic, tech-savvy and value-conscious.

Traffic forecasts from m1nd-set’s Business 1ntelligence Service (B1S), powered by data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), indicate that Chinese outbound travel will reach full recovery in 2026.

Passenger numbers are projected to hit 101 million – matching pre-pandemic 2019 levels. The recovery is then expected to transition into sustained expansion.

Chinese outbound travel remained subdued during the pandemic, recovering by just +4% in 2021 and by +7% in 2022. Momentum returned in 2023, when outbound traffic reached 42 million outbound flights, before accelerating through 2024 and 2025.

Beyond the 2026 recovery, the outbound Chinese travel sector is forecast to grow by +11.9% year-on-year in 2027, followed by steady annual gains of around nine million passengers. By 2030, outbound traffic is projected to reach 140 million travellers, representing a +38.6% increase compared with 2019.

Regional destinations lead recovery

The rebound is uneven across destinations, the m1nd-set research shows, with regional Asian markets dominating Chinese travel flows. Japan is forecast to lead in 2026 with 8.6 million arrivals, achieving an 89% recovery rate, followed by South Korea and Thailand with six million and 5.1 million arrivals, respectively.

Malaysia is expected to be the only top-ten destination to surpass pre-pandemic levels, reaching a 109% recovery rate, while Singapore is projected to achieve near-full recovery at 99%.

While the overall volume is rebounding, the recovery is notably uneven across the leading passenger destinations.

In contrast, long-haul and politically sensitive destinations continue to lag. Taiwan and the US are forecast to recover to just 38% and 43% of 2019 levels, respectively.

m1nd-set Owner and CEO Dr Peter Mohn commented: “These variations in the international traffic revival among the Chinese suggest that while the volume of travellers is returning, their geographic preferences have shifted toward regional hubs.”

Digital planning reshapes path to purchase

The m1nd-set research highlights a fundamental shift in how Chinese travellers plan their shopping journeys. Around 45% research retail options before arriving at the airport, with 76% relying on online sources.

Social media platforms now play a dominant role in shaping brand preferences. According to the study, the most influential channels are XiaoHongShu (RedNote) with 17%; WeChat with 16%; and Douyin with 14%.

The m1nd-set research highlights a fundamental shift in how Chinese travellers plan their purchases, with social media platforms playing a dominant role.

Mohn explained: “The path to purchase for the Chinese traveller has fundamentally shifted from the airport terminal to the digital pre-trip phase. With the significant share of travellers now using online touchpoints, a robust and interactive presence on these platforms is no longer a luxury for travel retailers; it is a basic necessity to influence brand preference long before Chinese travellers reach the airport.

“We are witnessing the emergence of a ‘smart tourism’ landscape where over seven out of ten travellers now utilise AI for planning and price monitoring.”

Value perception poses challenges

Despite the recovery in travel volumes, sentiment towards airport shopping has weakened. The study found that 55% of Chinese travellers now consider airport retail less appealing than before the pandemic.

This shift is largely driven by a more pragmatic mindset, with many travellers prioritising essential purchases or questioning the value proposition of duty free.

The m1nd-set research indicates that increased competition from domestic retail channels is also a significant factor. Around 23% of travellers report that shopping within China is more convenient, while 17% cite the frequent promotions offered by local e-commerce and offline retailers.

The study highlights a significant shift in consumer sentiment, with many Chinese travellers now finding airport shopping less appealing.

In addition, more than one in five travellers believe duty free no longer provides the same level of exclusivity as in the past, reinforcing perceptions of diminished differentiation.

However, appetite for international shopping remains resilient. Nearly half of Chinese travellers (49%) still find shopping abroad more appealing than shopping at home, rising to 53% among travellers visiting the Middle East.

m1nd-set warns that restoring duty free’s appeal will depend on addressing a widening value gap in the eyes of Chinese consumers, through competitive pricing, an improved shopping experience, and guaranteed access to exclusive or limited-edition products.

Mohn concluded: “Success in this new era requires stakeholders to bridge a significant value gap by leveraging duty free’s unique strengths in exclusivity and authenticity while integrating into the high-influence social media ecosystems that now dictate the modern Chinese shopper’s path to purchase.

“By focusing on these wealthy, well-educated travellers, travel retail stakeholders can convert this massive return of passenger traffic into sustained, high-value revenue.”

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