Optimism levels dip in Q1 2025 TR Confidence Tracker flash poll

By Trbusiness Editor | Wednesday, 25 June 2025 13:14

Optimism levels among respondents to the Q1 2025 TR Confidence Tracker dipped slightly, quarter-over-quarter, with 56.89% of those who took part in the flash poll feeling optimistic about the global travel retail (GTR) industry over the next 12 months, compared to 67.22% of those who took part in the Q4 2024 poll.

The dip in optimistic sentiment (which, within this, encompasses a drop in the share of respondents who reported being ‘very optimistic’) made way for a rise in the share of respondents holding a neutral viewpoint, as well as those who are feeling pessimistic.

Plus, for the first time, a small share of respondents (1.72%) said they simply “don’t know”.

The results of the first TR Confidence Tracker flash poll of the year, which was open for approximately three weeks in April 2025, show that optimism levels have continued to fall since Q3 2024.

Furthermore, compared to the same time last year (Q1 2024), the share of respondents feeling optimistic has dropped almost 29 percentage points from 85.71% to 56.89%.

“Uncertainty is rife and this is leading to slow decision making and low risk taking,” commented Sean McNaughten, Founder, FreeWorld Brands.

Added Jens Degner, Head Retail Airside, Flughafen Zürich AG: “High retail/F&B prices (e.g. confectionery) will have an impact on customer behaviour in particular in duty free as well as F&B.”

When asked how optimistic respondents are feeling about their organisation’s performance in travel retail over the next 12 months, sentiment followed suit with 67.24% of respondents feeling optimistic compared to 75.86 in the previous quarter.

The share of those ‘neither optimistic or pessimistic’ widened to 20.69%.

In line with the first key indicator question, 1.72% of those who took part on the poll said “don’t know”.

“I am optimistic by nature and think that there are good opportunities but I have to admit that the future is less clear and probably bright that we could expect some months ago,” commented Pier Giuseppe Torresani, Export and Travel Retail Director, Masi.

Form a spirits category perspective, Simon Roffe, Business Development Director, The Welsh Whisky Company (Penderyn Distillery) added: “Given the impact of broader dynamics we are having to really focus in on priorities across all key markets.

“Travel retail remains critical to our long term ambitions and building brand awareness; we have to ensure we protect existing business as well as prioritising areas for future growth vs. the cost of the required investment.”

Respondents to the flash poll also had the option to share their views on the factors giving their business a boost, with comments as follows:

What provided the biggest boost for your company in DF&TR during Q1 2025 (January to March) and did this help propel you toward your year-end goals?

“The first quarter of 2025 was a particularly positive result for us, which we attribute largely to the strong recovery in air traffic in Italy. This trend had a direct and significant impact on sales in the travel retail channel, where we operate as distributors of high-quality F&B products. The increase in passenger numbers at airports stimulated demand, and thanks to a consolidated network of partners and a carefully selected range of premium brands, we were able to make the most of this opportunity. In addition, our ongoing focus on service quality and operations management enabled us to respond quickly and effectively to the growth in volumes.” Fabrizio Canal, CEO, Food Academia.

“First-quarter results were influenced by seasonality, regional holidays, and low consumer confidence in our core markets, and were also impacted by the timing of Easter last year. Despite these factors, the most significant boost to our business was the renovated Baltic Princess, which underwent an approximately eight-million-euro refurbishment, including nearly four million euros for a complete overhaul of the main passenger areas, enhancing passenger comfort and the overall travel experience.” Katri Keian, Head of E-commerce and Onshore Travel Retail, Tallink Duty Free AS

“Increased share of new customer segments, in particular Indian travellers.” Jens Degner, Head Retail Airside, Flughafen Zürich AG

“Working closely with Hanse Travel Retail, we have successfully launched Aviator fragrances, with sell in from Jan to March exceeding forecast. Aviator smart watches are also performing ahead of forecast on sell out, and our business with Emirates is ahead of budget.” Stuart McGuire, Director, JNS Brand Management Ltd

“As travel retail consultants specialised in knowledge transfer, we have experienced a significant demand for our real-world cases. Since 2016 we have been tracking and studying megatrends transforming the travel retail marketplace. Today, we have a wide range of cases which benefit airports, retailers and brands when they have to put together their commercial strategies.” Thomas Kaneko Henningsen, Partner, Blueprint.

“Guylian saw good growth in the category of seasonal products following strong and appealing in-store activations during both Valentine’s Day period and Easter.” Sven Adriaenssens, Sr Channel Manager Travel Retail, Chocolaterie Guylian

“New listings and some new engagement from buyers.” Sean McNaughten, Founder, FreeWorld Brands

“Strong activities with [the] launch of Dubai Style Chocolate in Europe and Ramadan/Easter activities.” Peter Zehnder, Head Global Travel Retail, Lindt & Sprüngli Schweiz AG

Learn more about the TR Confidence Tracker

TRBusiness launched the TR Confidence Tracker at the beginning of 2023 to help track optimism levels among DF&TR stakeholders throughout the year.

The quarterly flash poll monitors two key indicators: how optimistic DF&TR stakeholders are feeling about the GTR industry and their organisation’s performance in travel retail over the next 12 months.

It takes just a few minutes for respondents to share their views via the online portal. There’s the option to take part anonymously or go on-the-record and provide supporting comments. The results are shared at TRBusiness.com and/or via our other touchpoints.

Thank you to all those who participated in the latest poll.

The Q2 2025 TR Confidence Tracker flash poll will open in July 2025.