The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reports September’s global passenger demand rose by 5.7% , although his was the slowest year-on-year increase since February thanks to he negative impacts of Hurricanes Irma and Maria.

At the same time, IATA says that growth was already ‘tapering’ as capacity rose 5.3% and the average load factor edged up 0.3 percentage points to 81.6% – albeit a record for the month of September in isolation.

Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO said: “September’s growth in passenger demand was healthy, notwithstanding the heavy impacts of extreme weather events on the Americas.

International Passenger Growth by Region 2017. Click to enlarge.

LOW COST DEMAND CUT?

“Global economic conditions support rising passenger demand, but with higher cost inputs, the demand stimulation from lower fares has waned, suggesting a moderating trend in traffic growth.”

The good news was that international revenue per kilometre (RPKs) increased by 6.5% with airlines in all regions recording growth compared to 2016. At the same time, total capacity climbed 5.6%, and load factor rose 0.7 percentage points to 81.3%.

IATA said: “Asia-Pacific airlines’ traffic rose 8.7% in September compared to the year-ago period, the strongest growth among regions. Capacity increased 7.8%, and load factor climbed 0.6 percentage points to 78.3%. A solid regional economic backdrop, helped by robust growth in China, is supporting passenger demand within the region.

EUROPEAN CARRIERS FOLLOW ASIA GROWTH

“European carriers saw September demand rise 7.1% over September 2016, in line with August growth of 7.0%. The upward trend in seasonally-adjusted demand has slowed considerably since May, but business confidence remains high and the economic backdrop is supportive. Capacity rose 5.2% and load factor surged 1.6 percentage points to 86.8%, which was the highest among regions.

“Middle East carriers had a 3.7% rise in demand, the slowest rate of increase since February 2009. The Middle East-US market has been hit hard by the now lifted cabin ban on large portable electronic devices, as well as the various proposed travel bans to the US.

“Traffic between the region and the US has fallen for six consecutive months through August (the most recent month for which route data are available). Capacity rose 4.3%, and load factor slipped 0.4 percentage points to 74.5%.”

SECURITY SAID TO BE A BARRIER TO INBOUND US TRAVEL

The association added that North American airlines experienced a 3.0% rise in demand in September, while capacity rose 3.6% and the load factor fell 0.5 percentage points to 81.0%. In addition to the impacts of hurricanes Irma and Maria, anecdotal evidence continues to suggest that inbound traffic to the US is being deterred by additional security measures now involved in traveling to the country.

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The association said: “Latin American airlines’ performance was also affected by hurricane activity, but strong underlying demand meant that traffic rose 8.5% compared to the same month last year. Capacity climbed at the same rate and load factor was flat at 82.2%, the second highest among regions.

“African airlines posted a 3.6% rise in traffic in September, down from 6.5% in August. Capacity rose 0.3% and load factor jumped 2.4 percentage points to 73.8%. Conditions in the region’s two largest economies – Nigeria and South Africa, are diverging again, with business confidence levels in South Africa consistent with falling output.

DOMESTIC DEMAND +4.2% IN SEPTEMBER

Meanwhile, by contrast with the international numbers, domestic demand climbed 4.2% in September compared to September 2016. IATA says this was heavily affected by weather disruptions in the US market, which accounts for more than 40% of all domestic RPKs.

Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

India and China continued to lead all markets with double-digit annual traffic increases while elsewhere, results were mixed. Capacity rose 4.7% and load factor slipped 0.4 percentage points to 82.2%.

US domestic traffic fell by 1.2%, reflecting the hurricane impacts. IATA adds that with operations at affected major airports having returned to normal, it now appears that the disruption will be short-lived.

Commenting on the personal cost to some of the hurricanes, de Juniac said: “Our hearts go out to all those affected by the recent extreme weather events, which uprooted lives and communities and dealt heavy blows to local economies in the affected areas.

“It is at times like these that we truly see the vital role that aviation plays in disaster relief, bringing in much needed first responders and aid workers, as well as supplies, food and medicines to those in need.”