Almost three quarters (71%) of Survey respondents disagree or remain unsure on whether duty free & travel retail will indirectly benefit from the ‘Trump effect’.

The regional trading outlook for global duty free and travel retail in the wake of the recent US presidential election remains decidedly opaque, judge stakeholders in the TRBusiness Global Industry Survey.

In exclusive polling conducted for this year’s survey, the full results of which will be revealed inside the TRBusiness January/February e-zine, half of respondents state they are ‘unsure’ as to how Donald J. Trump’s victory for a second presidential term will colour business conditions in the context of the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts [though a ceasefire in the case of the latter has been reached in the past week – Ed].

More than one quarter of Survey contributors believe the new Republican administration in the White House will result in more auspicious geopolitical outcomes, while less than a quarter deemed the ‘Trump effect’ would not produce a favourable result for DF&TR trading.

The quantitative findings prompted a flurry of views on the new status quo in Capitol Hill and how that could influence the prospective fortunes of the global DF&TR industry.

“Trump has been elected for the ‘economy’; his foreign policy has not really been revealed yet, but it is very likely there will be changes in his approach in Eastern Europe and the Middle East,” remarks Christian Ruehrschneck, Sales Director, Fraas.

“These, at least can produce opportunities for improvement. And I feel it is likely that he – as a businessman – will align his policies with the economy. But it can also go the other way…”

Source: TRBusiness Global Industry Survey 2025. Click to enlarge.

The possibility of an economic boost for the US following the election is picked up on by Antonin Ottenheimer, Global Travel Retail Manager at Champagne Bollinger, who observes “confidence for the strength of the US economy”, with the prospect of tariffs and duties making “duty free more attractive”.

However, a situation mired in continued uncertainty is noted by several respondents in the Survey.

Pier Giuseppe Torresani, Export and Travel Retail Director, Masi says: “If the wars will be ended there could be a short term benefit for travel retail. The way the wars will be ended will, however, have a longer term effect that could be very negative if the peace agreements will not take care of the interests of all parties.”

Chris Terris, Head of Business Development, Eurostick Brands notes: “With a more likely isolationist approach of a Trump administration, there is probably going to be more short term flux resulting in fewer people travelling to the Middle East and Eastern Europe.”

Trump’s tariff and import duty threats could benefit DF&TR in some areas, survey respondents acknowledge, though the broader picture remains uncertain as the industry confronts weakened consumer sentiment – and spending – and fluctuating travel behaviours. Image: Phil Mistry/Shutterstock.

Melissa Mendible, Senior Sales Manager – International Markets, Clean Beauty Collective adds: “The outcome of the recent US election may influence geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, with potential implications for duty free and travel retail trading.

“If the administration prioritises diplomacy, stabilisation efforts and economic cooperation, it could lead to improved regional stability, fostering growth in travel and trade. This would benefit the DF&TR industry, particularly in key hubs like the UAE, Turkey and Eastern Europe.

“However, if tensions escalate due to shifts in foreign policy or strained relations with regional powers, it could complicate trading conditions. Uncertainty in these regions may impact travel demand, supply chains and consumer sentiment, creating challenges for the DF&TR industry. Ultimately, the impact will depend on how US policies align with regional priorities and how quickly geopolitical changes unfold.”

[Stay close to TRBusiness for the results of the Global Industry Survey, which marks its 21^st anniversary in 2025].

Among the nine featured questions in this year’s Global Industry Survey, readers were asked to comment on their travel retail trading expectations in 2025, industry headwinds and tailwinds, price advantage erosion and the rise of AI and risk sharing in the concession model, among other areas.

Established in 2004, the inimitable TRBusiness Global Industry Survey is conducted without any personal biases or alliances – it simply asks a series of questions and publishes the on-record answers.

This year’s Global Industry Survey carries responses from travel retail CEOs, associations, airport operators and a broad cross-section of other travel retail stakeholders, with contributors including Avolta, Lagardère Travel Retail, Aer Rianta International, Dubai Duty Free, Gebr. Heinemann, Lotte Duty Free, Heathrow Airport, Fraport AG, Duty Free World Council, Newmark, AS Tallink Grupp – and many more.

TRBusiness would like to thank all its readers for their responses. We greatly value your opinions and thoughts as the industry enters a crucial apex in its recovery in 2025. The TRBusiness Global Industry Survey ran from 13 November 2024 – 15 January 2025.

*Lead image credit: Phil Mistry/Shutterstock