IATA’s Maja Marciniak warned that, although global traffic is on a long-term growth path, shifts in the global economy and geopolitics can inflict disruptions.

The conference for the 2026 TRBusiness Travel Retail Consumer Forum, hosted by IATA at its Geneva Conference Center, got underway with keynote and  state-of-the-industry presentations from the airline association and m1nd-set examining the industry’s key challenge – the widening gap between air traffic and travel retail spending.

Complemented by the aviation insights of Maja Marciniak, Senior Economist Policy Analysis at IATA, the Founder & CEO of m1nd-set, Dr Peter Mohn, stepped up to begin their shared keynote presentation.

Combining Mohn’s data-driven blueprint for navigating the global shift in shopper behaviour with Marciniak’s strong track record of translating complex economic and operational challenges into actionable insights, the session established a foundation of solid data on which to build an industry response to the conference theme.

Building on IATA data

Analysing IATA’s data in a detailed picture of the global air market, Marciniak warned that, although global traffic is continuing on its established long-term growth path, shifts in the global economy, geopolitics and regional disruptions always inflict disruption on the air and travel retail markets.

The current conflict in the Middle East is the most influential element right now, and she warned: “Fuel prices are approximately a third of the airline cost base. So, we look very carefully at what is happening in the fuel market to try and understand how the economy is shaping the airline business.”

“Right now, approximately 25% of the global population is Gen Z (born between 1997 and 2012), and that percentage is higher within the vital Asian markets. They are growing strongly in influence and importance to the travel industry. This is the segment of the population that is travelling most; they can afford travel, they prioritise their budgets for holidays, and they can afford spending.”

M1nd-set’s Peter Mohn explains the efficiency paradox at the Forum.

Drawing on the latest, exclusive m1nd-set analytics (which will be distributed to delegates post-conference), Mohn examined the widening gap between surging passenger traffic and stagnant retail conversion rates – raising the spectre of what he terms ‘the efficiency paradox’, exploring how the industry can better engage the rising majority of Gen Z travellers.

Supported by in-depth passenger data and analysis from Marciniak, Mohn went on to provide a compelling insight that connects macro-level air traffic evolution with micro-level purchase behaviour, placing robust data and analysis at the core of industry strategy.

Mohn highlighted the human element in the experience: “Never forget the human factor, especially when travellers face a problem or delay on their journey”, and this is increasingly important as more travellers (particularly Gen Z) are seeking less structured travel experiences, more spontaneous trips and also want to make their experiences unique. They also want to travel more often outside the traditional peak periods.

Data from m1nd-set showed forecasts that the global travel retail market, currently at a $75bn market value, could reach $130bn by 2031. However, he warned that the increasing gap between traffic levels and travel retail sales shows that the industry is at risk of losing a little bit of its relevance at the airport. This can vary according to the size of the airport, with the major hubs performing better.

Mohn highlighted regions and key nationalities for growth. They nclude Latin America (such as Brazil and Mexico), the Middle East (including UAE and Kuwait), India, and Southeast Asia (including Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines).

Embracing hybrid formats is a huge opportunity, with retail-integrated F&B spaces and curated street food markets – a strategy analysed in a focused session later on the first morning of the Forum.

Mind the gap

Drawing on exclusive m1nd-set analytics, Mohn and Marciniak addressed the worrying, and still widening, gap between surging passenger traffic and stagnant retail conversion rates – a core focus being the ’efficiency paradox’, exploring how the industry can better engage the rising majority of Gen Z travellers: “The industry is back in growth mode, but it is not back to its old operating model. International departures are forecast to reach 2.414 billion in 2026, representing 122% of 2019 levels, indicating a stronger traffic base than before the pandemic.

Mohn said: “The market has the passenger volume, but the challenge is converting that into higher retail relevance, spend and profitability.”

On the industry revival, Mohn said: “The commercial recovery is more fragile: non-aeronautical revenue share has fallen from 40.2% in 2019 to 36.7% in 2023, and retail concessions now represent only around 20% of non-aeronautical income, versus 27% in 2019. In other words, the market has the passenger volume, but the challenge is converting that volume into higher retail relevance, spend and profitability.”

Despite the current geopolitical upheaval and especially the surge in airline fuel costs (which constitute one-third of airline costs), Marciniak is confident that we face a “far from miserable outlook” and the industry is still poised for growth.

Asia-Pacific in particular is “definitely the market to watch going forward” and offers cause for optimism, including relatively stable traffic that was down by only -1.4% in March despite the scale of the global impact of the Middle East conflict. Route networks have actually grown by +2.2% as airlines have undertaken a radical reconfiguration of routes.

Marciniak added that leisure traffic is clearly outpacing the growth of business travel.  She also warned that among consumers, who face household cost pressures, 39% expected to spend less on travel.

Longer term, Marciniak offered a highly positive projection, with global traffic forecast to double between 2024 and 2050. Asia-Pacific is the driver of that growth, with a tripling of the region’s traffic possible in that same timeframe.