Dr. Peter Mohn, CEO & Owner, m1nd-set at the 2026 TR Consumer Forum in Geneva.

As is customary, Dr. Peter Mohn, CEO & Owner, m1nd-set, made a state-of-the-industry address at the TR Consumer Forum in Geneva today (Thursday 2 July).

While the full data packet is reserved for delegates, here Mohn shares an insight into the stories behind the statistics in this exclusive feature – including how stakeholders can help unlock the potential of the duty-free market to reach up to $113 billion estimated sales globally by 2031.

The industry is firmly back in growth mode, according to the Swiss research agency, but it is not back to its old operating model. International departures are forecast to reach 2.414 billion in 2026, or 122% of 2019 levels, so the traffic base is clearly stronger than before the pandemic. However, the commercial recovery is more fragile: non-aeronautical revenue share has fallen from 40.2% in 2019 to 36.7% in 2023, and retail concessions now represent only around 20% of non-aeronautical income, versus 27% in 2019.

“In other words, the market has the passenger volume, but the challenge is converting that volume into higher retail relevance, spend and profitability,” said Mohn. “The defining characteristics of the 2026 market are therefore: high traffic, uneven regional recovery, stronger impulse purchasing, greater demand for value and exclusivity, and a consumer base that expects airport retail to be experiential, social and digitally connected.”

Traffic and pax trends

In terms of the global air traffic and passenger trends that are set to have the greatest impact on travel retail growth over the next three to five years, m1nd-set points to the continued expansion of international departures, especially from fast-growing nationalities and regions, as a major driver.

“Europe remains the largest 2026 departure region, but growth opportunities are strongest in South-East Asia, India, the Middle East and Latin America, where outbound travel, middle-class expansion, hub connectivity and value-seeking behaviour are all strengthening,” said Mohn. “The second driver is the changing nature of the traveller. Younger travellers, especially Gen Z and Millennials, are shaping traffic, dwell time and shopping behaviour. Gen Z is becoming strategically more important long term, and is already the generation most likely to visit duty-free stores, although conversion remains a challenge.”

Third on the list is the shift in travel occasions, with micro-trips, off-peak travel, multi-generational event travel, ancestry travel, solo travel and longer sabbatical-style journeys all changing when, why and how travellers move through airports.

“These behaviours create new retail moments, but they also require more targeted merchandising and communication than the traditional ‘one-size-fits-all’ duty-free model,” said Mohn.

Relevance and conversion

The biggest commercial threat currently facing travel retail is not traffic; it is relevance and conversion, says m1nd-set. Indeed, the insights show that duty-free footfall is softening, with duty-free visitors falling from 44% of passengers in 2023 to 40% in 2025, while purchase rate declined from 28% to 26% and average spend remained broadly flat at $130.

“That means the industry cannot rely on passenger growth alone,” said Mohn. “The second threat is value perception. Travellers increasingly compare airport prices with domestic retail and e-commerce, and some shoppers are choosing to buy elsewhere when airport retail fails to provide a clear value advantage, a motivating promotion or a distinctive product offer.”

The third threat is the persistence of siloed retail formats. “Hybrid retail and F&B environments are increasingly important because traditional standalone offers do not capture the full value of passenger dwell time. Airports and retailers need to shift toward hybrid F&B-retail concepts, immersive entertainment, data-led retail and sustainability-linked initiatives to strengthen non-aeronautical revenue.”

Star consumer segments

Regionally, the strongest opportunity lies in South-East Asia, India, the Middle East and Latin America.

“South-East Asia offers volume growth and brand discovery. India offers fast outbound growth and underdeveloped travel retail penetration. The Middle East offers premium and luxury potential. South America offers regional mobility and value-seeking shoppers,” explained Mohn.

Demographically, Gen Z is the most important long-term growth segment.

“They visit duty-free more than other generations, but they are harder to convert, which makes them both a major opportunity and a major operational challenge,” he said. “They are social-native, digitally influenced, value-conscious but not purely price-driven, and highly responsive to authenticity, exclusivity, visible scarcity and shareable experiences.”

A less obvious opportunity is the lower-income buyer segment.

“Although smaller in absolute size, this group can outperform expectations when the offer is relevant because they are intentional, digitally influenced, spontaneous and responsive to sales staff engagement.”

Category push and pull

Looking at category dynamics, perfumes are outperforming as the leading footfall driver, while tobacco delivers the highest conversion, with nearly two-thirds of browsers purchasing. Cross-category shopping is also a major growth lever: travellers buy an average of 1.6 categories per duty-free visit, but spend rises sharply when more categories are added, from around $100 for one category to $177 for five categories and $209 for seven categories.

“The strongest opportunities sit around category combinations: perfumes with skincare, alcohol, confectionery and tobacco; confectionery with alcohol and tobacco; and selected pairings such as alcohol with electronics, where the right combination can significantly lift basket value,” said Mohn.

“The greatest pressure is on categories and retail formats that depend on old duty-free habits: planned gifting, generic price advantage and standalone counters. Gifting has declined and self-consumption has strengthened, while around 70% of airport retail transactions are now impulse-led rather than planned. At the same time, most duty-free shoppers still buy only one or two categories, showing how much value remains unrealised when merchandising stays too narrow.”

Markers of success

According to Mohn, the factors that will define a successful travel retail business over the next five years will be one that converts traffic into relevance.

“That means moving beyond the classic duty-free proposition of price, range and location, and building a model around data-led personalisation, hybrid retail and F&B, emotionally engaging experiences, clear value, travel exclusives and better staff-assisted conversion,” he explained. “The market has the potential to reach up to $113 billion by 2031, but only if the industry adapts to a major shift in consumer buying habits.

“The most underestimated trends are, first, the commercial power of hybrid retail and F&B; second, the speed at which Gen Z will redefine conversion; third, the rise of impulse and self-treat purchasing; fourth, the importance of travel-only exclusivity; and fifth, the opportunity in overlooked shopper segments such as lower-income buyers and solo travellers.

“In summary: the next five years will reward businesses that treat the airport not as a captive retail channel, but as a high-intent, high-dwell, emotionally charged consumer environment where conversion depends on value, experience, exclusivity and relevance.”

This feature first appeared in the June 2026 issue of TRBusiness magazine. Click here to read. 

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