Middle East commercial passenger traffic is set to grow by 5.9% annually until 2036, while the average size of airline fleets in the region is expected to more than double from 1,250 to 3,320 aircraft over the next two decades.

 

These are the findings in the latest Airbus Global Market Forecast where the aircraft manufacturer estimates that the fleet demand for new aircraft in the Middle East is valued at $600bn.

 

MIDDLE EAST REQUIRES 2,290 NEW AIRCRAFT BY 20136

Airbus commented: “The Middle East will need some 2,590 new aircraft by 2036, for replacement of 520 older generation aircraft and 2,070 aircraft for growth – 730 are expected to remain in service over the period. This demand includes 1,080 for twin-aisle aircraft, with the same number of single-aisle aircraft (1,080), and 430 very large aircraft.

 

“Overall, future demand for the Middle East’s fleet is valued at $600bn from a total market value $5.3 trillion. The current orders from Middle East-based carriers stand at 1,319 aircraft, of which 687 are single-aisle, 409 twin-aisle and 162 very large aircraft.”

 

Airbus is also forecasting that passenger traffic to, from and within the Middle East will grow 5.9% annually until 2036, well above the global average of 4.4%. It also believes that traditional markets will grow at a steady rate, with highest growth expected on routes to Latin America (8.5% per year to 2036).

 

“Thanks to the A350, the A380 and also the A320 family, most people around the world are just one flight away from the Middle East,” said John Leahy, Chief Operating Officer Customers, Airbus Commercial Aircraft.

 

EXCEPTIONAL GROWTH EXPECTATIONS…

“The region’s proximity to the world’s population and growth markets has been a key in its aviation success and Airbus is proud to have been a partner in its development from day one.”

 

Airbus adds that ’30% of the people in emerging markets’ such as India, China and some countries in ASEAN take a least one trip by air on average and by 2036 the manufacturer expects this will grow to just over 80%.

 

The company concluded: “At present, there are 58 aviation mega-cities across the globe, accounting for more than a million daily long-haul passengers. By 2036, there will be 95 mega-cities, catering to 98% of the world’s long-haul services.

 

 

MIDDLE EAST ‘MEGA CITIES’ SET TO DOUBLE

“The five mega cities existing today In the Middle East will more than double to eleven over the next 20 years.”

 

Of course, the full growth potential as referenced here will only be realised if the Middle East can find solutions to the current air traffic congestion, which already exists in the region, and this will require increasing coordination and cooperation on a level not seen previously in the region.

 

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has highlighted this problem on numerous occasions and there is now significant optimism that relatively recent cooperative initiatives may see a considerable improvement in future.