China Duty Free Group’s CDF Mall in Hainan.

With the Chinese government’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021 to 2025) coming to an end and a 15th Five-Year Plan (2026 to 2030) about to start, China’s most influential travel retailer, China Duty Free Group (CDFG), has set out its view of the future in a white paper, in partnership with Beijing DATA 100.

CDFG has drawn on real consumption data as well as industry performance, macroeconomic trends, and duty-free policies for its analysis, and below, TRBusiness has summarised the main findings.

1. Global market maintains recovery

Based on Generation figures, CDFG noted that in 2024, the global duty-free and travel retail market hit $74.13 billion, a YoY (year-on-year) increase of 3%, but still only at 86% of its 2019 level. The rebound has been supported by, among other factors, recovering international tourism, the rise of emerging markets, and digital transformation.

Growth trends in the global travel retail market.

2. Domestic demand stabilises in China

CDFG maintains that China’s GDP “has returned to healthy growth after a period of adjustment”. The retailer says that supportive government policies and expanding domestic demand have stabilised consumer confidence. Examples include Hainan’s offshore duty-free policy, the advancement of downtown duty-free shop policy, plus growth in domestic and international tourism, and increased inbound consumption.

3. Omnichannel strategy helps market share

In the Chinese market, concentration is increasing, with CDFG taking its market share to almost 80% (see chart below). The company said it has leveraged omnichannel operations, supply chain, value management, plus capital and tech drivers – in cooperation with partners – to achieve this increase last year.

CDFG has clear market dominance in China.

4. User base tops 100 million

In 2024, CDFG’s total user base reached 104 million, a YoY increase of +26%. Foreign users grew rapidly at 54% and their spending increased by 84.5%.

5. CDFG membership base grows

Active members increased last year, and their proportion of the overall membership has remained stable. By June 2025, CDFG’s membership had passed 45 million, and this base is exhibiting three new traits:

– A solidified customer foundation across both mass and high-luxury segments

– Men as a growth engine for high-end consumption

– Increasing purchasing power of seniors.

6. Identifying the customer base

Based on consumption, category preference, age, and region, CDFG is now segmenting customers into nine categories:

– Self-care connoisseurs aged 31-45 from first- and second-tier cities who like high-end skincare

– HNW luxury connoisseurs who favour watches and jewellery

– Aspiring upgraders from third- and fourth-tier cities who pragmatically pursue quality

– Male spirits aficionados aged 31-50 who like premium liquor

– Tech adventurers aged 21-35 focused on tech

– Gen Z trend-driven stylists aged 16-30 who follow makeup trends

– Senior quality seekers aged 60+ who prioritise health-related consumption

– Performance athletes aged 26-45 who seek professional gear

– Foreign travellers looking for products with Chinese characteristics.

By identifying these distinct groups, CDGF believes it can drive upgraded spending.

7. New consumption trends

Through product innovation and cross-over collaborations, domestic brands have achieved a breakthrough in travel retail. The enthusiasm of young consumers for Guochao, or China Chic, products is affecting the dominance of international brands. Experiential elements like immersive displays and art installations are shifting duty-free shopping from a transactional activity to content consumption, requiring the curation of lifestyle experiences. And with online and offline boundaries dissolving, initiatives such as AR/VR tech and online-exclusive SKUs are building a new consumption loop: online ordering + offline experience.

8. A new landscape for category consumption

Across several key product areas, changes are afoot:

– In beauty, makeup and fragrances are showing “remarkable growth”, with foreign travellers, male customers, and Guochao brands driving growth.

– In luxury and accessories, consumption has changed. The ultra-high-end market shows significant growth, while affordable luxury is stable. CDFG is securing high-end clientele with exclusive services such as personal shopping and flight reimbursement.

– In hard luxury, jewellery is showing YoY growth, while there is strong regional-demand variation for watches.

– In liquor, consumption is stratified across categories and demographics, “showcasing a trend of simultaneous scale expansion and structural upgrading”.

– In food and general merchandise, Gen Z and seniors are driving emotional and health-related consumption. CDFG is implementing a strategy of ‘Guochao brands + niche’ scenarios to match these needs.

CDFG now has a product matrix of over 360,000 SKUs across all categories, having introduced over 200 new brands and exclusively launched over 500 limited-edition products across 19 collections in 2024.

9. Forward march

CDFG believes that structural opportunities are emerging by targeting the nine key segments noted above, and focusing on “contextual customer acquisition, immersive conversion, and emotional retention” as a model. The retailer is also using its “digital-intelligence ecosystem” as a driver to deepen the integration of duty-free, culture, commerce, sports, tourism, and health.

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