IATA records highest air pax demand for 5 years

By Doug Newhouse |

TonyTyler_007 full size

Tony Tyler, IATA.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reports that global passenger traffic results for 2015 measured in revenue passenger kilometres or RPKs rose by 6.5% for the full year compared to 2014.

 

IATA says this is the strongest result since the ‘post-global financial crisis rebound in 2010’, comfortably exceeding the 10-year average annual growth rate of 5.5%.

 

Even though it notes that ‘economic fundamentals were weaker in 2015 compared to 2014’, passenger demand was boosted by lower air fares. It also notes that after adjusting for distortions caused by the rise of the US dollar, global air fares were approximately 5% lower in 2015 than in 2014.

 

“Last year’s very strong performance, against a weaker economic backdrop, confirms the strong demand for aviation connectivity. But even as the appetite for air travel increased, consumers benefited from lower fares compared to 2014,” said Tony Tyler, IATA’s Director General and CEO.

 

Global growth in air travel

 

IATA added that annual capacity rose by 5.6% last year, with the result that the load factor rating climbed by 0.6 percentage points to a record annual high of 80.3%. All regions experienced positive traffic growth in 2015, while airlines in the Asia-Pacific region accounted for one-third of the total annual increase in traffic.

 

International passenger traffic rose by 6.5% in 2015 compared to 2014, while capacity rose 5.9% and the load factor inched up by 0.5 percentage points to 79.7%. All regions recorded year-over-year increases in demand.

 

Interestingly, Asia Pacific airlines recorded an increase of 8.2% compared to 2014, which was the largest increase among the three largest regions, with demand stimulated by a 7.3% increase in the number of direct airport connections in the region.

 

By contrast, European carriers’ international traffic climbed 5% in 2015, alongside a capacity rise of 3.8% and a load factor increase of 1.0% to 82.6% – the highest amongst the regions.

 

International Pax growth 2015

 

Healthier consumer spending in the Eurozone was the main reason, plus a moderate increase in flight frequencies. Having said this, traffic growth slowed at the end of the year due to strikes at Lufthansa and the shutdown of Russia’s Transaero.

 

Further afield, North American airlines saw demand rise 3.2% in 2015, broadly unchanged from the growth achieved in 2014. Capacity rose 3.1%, edging up load factor 0.1 percentage points to 81.8%.

 

Once again, Middle East carriers demonstrated the strongest annual traffic growth at 10.5%. As a result, their share of total international traffic 14.2%, surpassing their North American counterparts (13.4%). However, capacity growth of 13.2% exceeded the demand gains, so pushing down the load factor by 1.7 percentage points to 76.4%.

 

Another good news story was that Latin American airline traffic rose by 9.3% in 2015, with capacity up by 9.2% and load factors up by a marginal 0.1% to 80.1%. However, key regional economies such as Brazil have continued to struggle while the overall traffic is said to have been ‘robust’.

 

Domestic air traffic 2015

 

African airlines had the slowest annual demand growth, up 3.0%, although this was a significant improvement over the 0.9% annual growth achieved in 2014.

 

Meanwhile, domestic air travel rose by 6.3% in 2015 with all markets showing growth, led by India and China but there was wide variance. Capacity rose by 5.2% and the load factor was 81.5%, up 0.9 percentage points over 2014.

 

IATA reports that Brazil’s domestic air travel market rose by just 0.8% in 2015, reflecting the country’s deteriorating economic situation, with traffic levels showing a downward trend throughout the year.

 

Better news was that US domestic traffic climbed by 4.9% last year, helped by solid economic growth. This was the fastest rate of increase since 2004 and the first time since 2003 that domestic traffic growth surpassed international growth. The load factor reached a domestic record high of 85.4%.

 

Air travel growth by region 2015

 

Commenting, IATA’s Tyler said: “Aviation delivered strong results for the global economy in 2015, enabling connectivity and helping to drive economic development.

 

“The value of aviation is well understood by friends and families whom aviation brings together, by business travellers meeting clients in distant cities, and particularly by those for whom aviation is a lifeline in times of crisis.

 

“It is very disappointing to see that some governments still wrongly believe that the value of taxes and charges that can be extracted from air transport outweighs the benefits – economic and social – of connectivity. The most recent example is the dramatic increase in the Italian Council Tax levied on air passengers.

 

“This 33-38% hike will damage Italian economic competitiveness, reduce passenger numbers by over 755,000 and GDP by €146m ($162m) per year. An estimated 2,300 jobs a year will be lost.

 

“At a time when the global economy is showing signs of weakening, governments should be looking for ways to stimulate spending, not discourage it.”

 

 

 

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