Aviation warnings related to the Icelandic Bárðarbunga volcano remain at Orange [i.e. no flight restrictions] despite heightened eruption and gas emission activities.

 

The Iceland Meteorological Office says that ‘eruptive activity’ is limited (see latest IMO image, right), although gas emissions at the immediate small eruption site are high and life threatening with gas masks and gas metres required.

 

However, this is not unusual in itself, although it can be extremely dangerous to those monitoring the volcano on site and to the local population if there are unusual wind anomalies.

 

THREE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS…

In its assessment of the likelihood of a big eruption and a resulting ash cloud, the Iceland Meteorological Office says there are three scenarios that are realistic at present, which it describes as follows.

 

“Subsidence of the Bárðarbunga caldera stops and the eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually.

 

“Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujökull, resulting in a jökulhlaup and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.

 

“Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jökulhlaup, accompanied by ash fall. Other scenarios cannot be excluded.”