The airports of London and Paris are expected to see a fall in inbound traffic based on OTB (on-the-book, ie actual) airline bookings from international, long haul (non-Europe) markets in the four months to the end of August.

Data from analyst ForwardKeys [using air reservations handled via the main airline GDS worldwide] show that London arrivals will be down by -1.8% and Paris, down -1.3% (see chart and click to enlarge), while other airports such as Amsterdam, Milan and Istanbul will see a double-digit influx (+13.2%, +10.9% and +10.2% respectively).

“London and Paris continue their leading positions with huge market share advantages,” says ForwardKeys [combined they have a 27% share of arrivals]. “However, London is the only destination showing negative performance in 2015 YTD and OTB, while Paris saw a fairly flat performance.”

SUSTAINED LOSSES FOR LONDON

In the four months to April, London was down by -3.7%, a key factor being the weakness of the euro which is attracting long haul travellers to the European mainland.

Amsterdam and Milan are the beneficiaries of this shift in the top 10, with double-digit growth rates seen in both the four months to April and in the four months to August. Meanwhile, Istanbul is also set to generate a +10.1% increase in the summer.

ForwardKeys says that six of the top 10 source countries for London have fewer advanced bookings compared to previous years, including both mature and emerging markets. In the four months to August, China will be down by -3.7% and the US -4.0%.

INDIAN BOOST

However, there will be a visitor boom for London from India (+21.1%) and from Japan (+24.4%) although these bookings are not enough to lift an overall contraction of -1.8% for the period.

Paris too, will see a +40.2% increase in Indian travellers, with travel from Hong Kong up by +24.1%, and Algeria +18.7%. Again, however, this is insufficient to stop a -1.3% contraction for the period.

ForwardKeys says that for both cities there is a weakness in the business segment, while London is also seeing weakness in leisure demand.

Amsterdam, meanwhile, is seeing booming demand in the leisure segment. All of its top source markets, apart from Japan, are positive, with six in double digits; Brazil is expected to be up +32.2% and China up by +32.2% in the four months to August. Milan is also expected to have a huge Chinese influx, up +52.2%.