The latest Airports Council International (ACI) forecast shows a slow and uncertain recovery path in Asia Pacific and the Middle East, with a diverse demand recovery pattern.

That said, the two regions are expected to be the fastest growing globally, according to World Air Traffic Forecasts 2020-2040.

Total passenger traffic is forecasted to grow fast at a compound growth rate of 5.2% in the Middle East and 4.7% in Asia Pacific.

Forecasted to close 2020 with a passenger traffic decline of about 58%, Asia Pacific airports are expected to return to the 2019 pre-Covid passenger volume of approximately 3.4 billion passengers by 2023.

The Middle East, which served 405 million passengers in 2019 was expected to close 2020 with a passenger traffic decline of about 72%. Passengers levels in the region are unlikely to return to pre-Covid levels until 2024

EFFECTIVE VACCINE DISTRIBUTION

Stefano Baronci, Director General, ACI Asia-Pacific said: “This forecast is based on the assumption that an effective vaccine is distributed in 2021 and broader population vaccination is largely accomplished by early 2022.

“Limited vaccine supply and slow distribution combined with a prolonged economic downturn risks postponing the recovery of the whole region to 2024,” said Baronci.

Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Iran in the Middle East and Indonesia, India, Vietnam, Philippines and China in Asia-Pacific, are among the top-10 fastest-growing countries above 50 million passengers by compound growth rate from 2019 to 2040.

“For the aviation industry to continue providing vital services and supporting the global vaccine distribution undertakings, ACI Asia-Pacific urges the inclusion of all aviation workers and airport staff as essential workers as part of the World Health Organisation’s Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunisation recommendations and national vaccination plans,” emphasised Baronci.