The world’s total civil aviation passenger and freight fleet (above 100 seats) is forecast to more than double to more than 40,000 aircraft over the next 20 years, according to Airbus Industries’ Commercial Aircraft division.

 

These are the findings of the latest Global Market Forecast 2017-2036, which is also predicting a need for another 530,000 new pilots and 550,000 new maintenance engineers as traffic is set to grow at 4.4% per year.

The main drivers behind this latest prediction are the increasing numbers of first time flyers, rising disposable income spent on air travel, expanding tourism and industry liberalisation.

 

NEW ROUTES ALSO DRIVING DEMAND

New routes are also a major factor, with Airbus suggesting there will be a need need for 34,170 passenger and 730 freighter aircraft worth a combined total of $5.3 trillion. Of this, it also predicts that more than 70% of these new aircraft will be single aisle aircraft, with a 60% growth in this aircraft type.

 

As is well known, Airbus says air traffic growth is currently highest in emerging markets such as China, India, the rest of Asia and Latin America and almost double the 3.2% per year growth forecast in mature markets such as North America and Western Europe.

 

As such, emerging markets which are currently home to 6.4bn of the world’s 7.4bn population are expected to account for nearly 50% of the world’s private consumption by 2036.

 

AIR TRAVEL DOUBLES EVERY 15 YEARS

“Air travel is remarkably resilient to external shocks and doubles every 15 years,” said John Leahy, COO – Customers, Airbus Commercial Aircraft.

 

“Asia Pacific continues to be an engine for growth, with domestic China to become the world’s largest market. Disposable incomes are growing and in emerging economies the number of people taking a flight will nearly triple between now and 2036.”

 

Over the next 20 years Asia Pacific is set to take 41% of new deliveries, followed by Europe with 20% and North America 16%. Aibus adds that middle class numbers will almost double to nearly five billion as wealth creation makes aviation even more accessible – particularly in emerging economies where spending on air travel services is set to double.

 

Breaking future aircraft style requirements down, Airbus says that in the twin-aisle segment, such as the A330s, A350 XWBs and A380s there will be a requirement for around 10,100 aircraft valued at US$2.9 trillion.

 

In the single-aisle segment, such at the A320neo, it expects a demand requirement for around 24,810 aircraft valued at US$2.4 trillion.