New preliminary data on international passenger traffic at airports across the globe indicate that London Heathrow (LHR) – for many years the world’s busiest international airport – could be relegated to third place as early as next year.

Based on data from Airport Council International, the trends in 2015, showed Dubai International Airport (DXB) pulling away in the top spot with traffic of 77.45m pax, up by +10.7%.

The Emirates hub, which took the crown as the world’s busiest international airport in 2014 from LHR, is now well clear of the London gateway’s 69.82m, up just +2.5% (see table below and click to enlarge).

In third place, Hong Kong International Airport (HKG) grew by +8.2% to 68.07m, closing in on LHR. If 2015’s growth trend continues this year, then HKG would leapfrog Heathrow, to record traffic of 73.65 versus 71.57m for the London hub.

MIXED RESULTS FOR EUROPE & ASIA

Duty free and travel retail operators will note that, in general, European airport in the top 20 have not fared well compared to several Asian rivals. Paris CDG and Frankfurt both saw growth of only +3.0% or less, while Rome and Amsterdam mustered growth +5.5% and +6.0% respectively.

Spanish airports, Madrid and Barcelona, and Istanbul Ataturk were the exceptions in Europe, growing robustly by +14.1%, +6.7% and +11.1% respectively.

Asian airports on the other hand, were high fliers, in many instances. While Singapore showed a disappointing +2.9% rise and Kuala Lumpur was flat [impacted by Malaysian Airlines’ troubles] Bangkok soared at +16.3% [despite significant terrorist incidents], Incheon hit +8.5% [despite last year’s MERS outbreak], and Taipei recorded a respectable +7.6%.

The best growth among the top 20 came from Doha in the Middle East at +17.3%, pushing it up the table by four places to 16^th. The Americas has just one airport, New York’s JFK in the top 20, with 30m international passengers. The hub dropped a place to 18^th.

SUPPLY-SIDE CAPACITY CONSIDERATIONS

Angela Gittens, Director General, ACI World, comments: “In certain markets, we see both airlines and airport operators expanding and optimising their capacity in order to accommodate the growing demand for air transport. Thus, even in the most mature markets such as the United States and parts of Western Europe, several of the major hubs experienced year-over-year growth rates in passenger traffic that were well above the historical growth levels for these regions.

“On the other hand, we continue to observe double-digit growth rates at major Middle Eastern and Asian hubs serving long haul routes in emerging markets. With the continued rise in per-capita income and liberalisation of air transport across these markets, the propensity to travel by air will rise accordingly.

“However, airport capacity considerations on the supply side within major city markets will remain paramount to the issue of accommodating the surge in demand for air travel.”

ACI’s preliminary passenger traffic results for the most-travelled airports in 2015 are based on reports from 1,144 airports worldwide.