Global tourist destinations received 369m international arrivals (overnight visitors) in the first *four months of the year – a growth of +6% year-on-year, according to the UN World Tourism Organization (UNWTO).

Sustained growth in most major destinations, coupled with a ‘steady rebound’ in others, has driven business confidence to a 10-year high, research from the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer found.

With few exceptions, international arrivals around the world were generally positive, with the Middle East (+10%), Africa (+8%), Europe (+6%), Asia Pacific (+6%) and the Americas (+4%) enjoying robust growth.

UNWTO Secretary-General Taleb Rifai said in a statement: “Destinations that were affected by negative events during 2016 are showing clear signs of recovery in a very short period of time, and this is very welcoming news for all, but particularly for those whose livelihoods depend on tourism in these destinations.”

EUROPE: CONFIDENCE RETURNING

Europe’s rebound in international arrivals comes after mixed results last year due to security concerns that impacted traffic to many destinations.

Notable performances were seen in the Southern Mediterrenean (+9%) and Western Europe (+4%), while Northern Europe (+9%) posted a solid return and Central and Eastern Europe (+4%) recorded figures broadly in line with last year.

The Americas was strengthened by South America and Central America (both +7%), while arrivals in the Caribbean and and North America grew by 2% and 3% respectively.

(For a detailed report into South America – and notably Brazil’s macroeconomic and travel retail performance, see the July issue of TRBusiness available now).

CHINA GDP BEATS PREDICTIONS

Growth across Asia Pacific’s sub-regions were led by South Asia (+14%), Oceania (+7%), South East Asia (+6%) and North East Asia (+5%).

Analysts’ appraisals of Asia Pacific’s progress in travel and tourism will be encouraged by the news that China’s GDP has grown by 6.9% in Q2, surpassing growth expectations of 6.8% for the quarter.

The Shanghai Composite Index traded down at almost 2.5% of its value at one point in the early half of the day, but recovered to close at 3,176 (CST) as stock markets in general reacted favourably to the news.

The sustained momentum shrugs off fears of a potential Chinese slowdown, as the government moves to tackle concerns over bank lending and a potential debt bubble burst.

Retail spending in particular reportedly picked up by 10.8% in Q2, according to a Reuters calculation based on official data.

Moreover, the results positions the country well on track to achieve Beijing’s year-end GDP growth target of 6.5%.

“The better than consensus print for Chinese Q2 GDP (6.9% vs. 6.8%) suggests that the economy is maintaining momentum with both industrial output and fixed asset investment somewhat stronger than estimates,” commented Shilen Shah, Bond Strategist at Investec Wealth & Investment.

“Retail sales were somewhat stronger; however, the underlying data suggests that external demand and capex remain the key drivers of growth.”

UNWTO data reveals China still tops the rankings for international tourism expenditure at $261bn (+12%) in 2016, with the US second at $124bn (+8%).

The growth in outbound travel and spending has benefitted many countries in Europe, the US, Japan, Thailand and the Republic of Korea, although the current THAAD crises has hit Chinese tourists to South Korea by more than 40% in recent months.

Asia Pacific itself accounted for a 25% share of international tourist arrivals in 2016 with 309m of the 1.2bn global total.

MAY-AUGUST ‘OPTIMISTIC’

Strong performances between January to April are already translating into positive forecasts in the current May to August period, indicates a confidence index from the UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts.

The optimistic assessment – based on a survey of evaluations and prospects every fourth months – is driven by healthy expectations of a continuing revival in Europe, which received the strongest responses.

“Destinations that were affected by negative events during 2016 are showing clear signs of recovery in a very short period of time, and this is very welcoming news for all, but particularly for those whose livelihoods depend on tourism in these destinations,” Rifai.

*January-April usually covers approximately 28% of the yearly total, including the Northern Hemisphere’s winter season and the Souther Hemisphere’s summer season, in addition to Chinese New Year and Easter holidays.