By the end of 2015, 17.6% of beauty spending in duty free and travel retail could be within a Dufry-owned store, up from about 6.1% at the start of last year.

The share hike is based on the assumption that Dufry can follow through with its planned purchase of World Duty Free, subject to approval from the relevant competition authorities, by the end of this year.

Based on 2013 data, Dufry had a 6.1% share of the global DF&TR beauty category worth $17,260.3m according to Generation Research. Adding in the share from Nuance [which Dufry has owned since last autumn] takes that share up to just over 11.5%. With WDF’s expected consolidation by the end of the year that share ramps up to 17.6% to make total beauty sales of more than $3bn (based on 2013 figures).

BEAUTY CONCENTRATION HIGHER THAN OTHER CATEGORIES

It is also worth noting that Dufry’s share of beauty will be much bigger than the average for all product categories.

Overall, with WDF and Nuance integrated (based on 2013 figures), the Dufry juggernaut will have a 13% share of the global DF&TR market, significantly less than the 17.6% for beauty.

The reason is that both, WDF and Nuance are traditionally weighted far more heavily to perfumes and cosmetics than Dufry with shares of 44%, 41% and 28% respectively.

[For a fuller analysis of how beauty is concentrating in the DF&TR channel see our beauty report in the June edition of TRBusiness magazine, out soon.]